000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220937 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Feb 22 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico on Mon with high pressure building behind it. Strong N gap winds will return this morning, reaching gale-force by late Mon morning. Model guidance indicates that this could be a strong gale wind event that could last until early Wednesday. Seas are expected to build 8-14 ft with swell from this event spreading away from the region, reaching by 101W on Tue morning. Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure north of Colombia to a second 1009 mb low near 06N88W to 04N97W. The ITCZ continues from 04N97W to beyond 139W. Scattered showers are noted from 02N to 06N between 89W to 94W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more information on the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale event. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh N to NW winds north of Punta Eugenia and fresh to strong in the north Central Gulf of California. Winds continue to be light to gentle off the southern Baja California coast. Winds will remain fresh to strong across the Gulf of California through tonight. Seas are expected to be 5-7 ft with the strongest winds. Winds could funnel through the Baja California passages into the Pacific waters at times. Models indicate strong winds across the Gulf of California could occur once again Thu through Fri with seas potentially reaching 8 ft. A large set of northwest swell is propagating through the waters west of Baja California north of Punta Eugenia. This swell will continue to advance southward reaching to near 20N by the morning, then subside by Mon evening. Another set of northerly swell begins to propagate near Guadalupe Island from late Tue night through Fri. A more significant swell event is possible next weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate NE winds north of the trough and light to gentle S to SW winds south of the trough. Wave heights range 5-7 ft with 8-9 ft swell propagating away from the Tehuantepec and Papagayo regions. Strong high pressure building over the western Caribbean Sea will bring pulsing fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of Papagayo nightly through this week. North winds will pulse moderate to locally fresh across the Gulf of Panama nightly during the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The combination of strong high pressure north of the area and lower pressures near the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong northeast to east winds over a large part of the area, mainly north of 05N and west of 120W, with the stronger winds north of 15N with wave heights ranging 8-11 ft. These conditions are forecast to continue this morning with winds diminishing by the afternoon. Seas will continue to range 8-10 ft through the week in this region. Northwest swell that propagated into the northern and northeast waters will subside Mon. Another set of northerly swell will begin to move through the far northeast waters Tue night through Fri. $$ Torres