000 AXPZ20 KNHC 212146 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Feb 21 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure north of the area has shifted eastward. Strong N winds will continue through this afternoon and diminish overnight. A cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico on Mon with high pressure building behind it. Strong N gap winds will return early Mon morning, reaching gale- force by late Mon morning. Model guidance indicates that this could be a strong gale wind event that could last until early Wednesday. Seas are expected to build 8-14 ft with swell from this event spreading away from the region, reaching by 101W on Tue morning. Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the Colombia coast near 04N77W to 03N80W to 06N91W to 03N106W. The ITCZ continues from 03N106W to 03N125W to 03N140W. Scattered showers are noted from 02N to 09N between 78W and 92W. Scattered showers are also noted along the trough from 01N to 07N between 101W and 108W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more information on the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale event. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh N to NW winds north of Punta Eugenia. Winds continue to be light to gentle off the southern Baja California coast. Winds will increase fresh to strong across the Gulf of California by this afternoon and continue through late Mon night. Seas are expected to be 5-7 ft with the strongest winds. Winds could funnel through the Baja California passages into the Pacific waters at times. Models indicate strong winds across the Gulf of California could occur once again Thu through Fri with seas potentially reaching 8 ft. A large set of northwest swell is propagating through the waters west of Baja California north of Punta Eugenia. This swell will continue to advance southward reaching to near 24N by Mon morning, then subside by Mon evening. Another set of northerly swell begins to propagate near Guadalupe Island from late Tue night through Fri. A more significant swell event is possible next weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate NE winds north of the trough and light to gentle S to SW winds south of the trough. Wave heights range 5-7 ft with 8-9 ft swell propagating away from the Tehuantepec and Papagayo regions. Strong high pressure building over the western Caribbean Sea will bring pulsing fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of Papagayo nightly through this week. North winds will pulse moderate to locally fresh across the Gulf of Panama nightly during the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The combination of strong high pressure north of the area and lower pressures near the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong northeast to east winds over a large part of the area, mainly north of 09N and west of 120W, with the stronger winds north of 15N with wave heights ranging 8-11 ft. These conditions are forecast to continue into Mon morning with winds diminishing by the afternoon. Seas will continue to range 8-10 ft through the week in this region. Northwest swell that propagated into the northern and northeast waters will subside by Mon. Another set of northerly swell will begin to move through the far northeast waters Tue night through Fri. $$ AReinhart