000 AXPZ20 KNHC 211553 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Feb 21 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: As high pressure north of the area shifts eastward today, gale force north to northeast gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec are expected to diminish by late this morning. Wave heights with these winds are in the 10-14 ft range. Winds will remain strong the rest of today. Large seas generated from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue to spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching to near 100W by this afternoon. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec strong gap wind event is expected to begin early Mon morning, reaching gale force by late Mon morning. The guidance indicates that this could be a strong gale wind event that could last until early Wednesday. Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the Colombia coast near 07N78W to a 1010 mb low near 07N87W to 02N96W to 02N107W. The ITCZ continues from 02N107W to 02N126W to 02N140W. Scattered showers are noted near the 1010 mb low to the Colombia coast from 02N to 08N between 77W and 87W. Scattered showers are also noted along the trough from 00N to 06N between 99W and 107W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more information on the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale event. Overnight scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong N to NW winds north of Punta Eugenia. These winds are expected to diminish to moderate to fresh this afternoon. Light to variable winds continue across the western coast of Baja California. Winds will increase fresh to strong over the central and southern Gulf of California by this afternoon and continue through late Mon night. Seas could reach near 8 ft. These winds could funnel through the Baja California passages into the Pacific waters at times. Models indicate the potential for these winds to pick up again by Thu. A large set of northwest swell is propagating through the waters west of Baja California north of Punta Eugenia. This swell will continue to advance southward reaching to near 24N later this morning, then subside tonight into Mon. Another set of northerly swell begins to propagate near Guadalupe Island from late Tue night through Thu, then begin to subside. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Overnight scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh NE winds north of the trough and light to gentle S to SW winds south of the trough. Wave heights range 5-7 ft with swell propagating away from the Tehuantepec and Papagayo regions. Strong high pressure building over the western Caribbean Sea will bring pulsing fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of Papagayo nightly through this week. North winds will pulse moderate to locally fresh across the Gulf of Panama nightly through the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The combination of strong high pressure north of the area and lower pressures near the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong northeast to east winds over a large part of the area, mainly north of 10N and west of 130W, with the stronger winds north of 20N with wave heights ranging 8-10 ft. These conditions are forecast to continue into Mon morning with winds diminishing by the afternoon. Seas will continue to range 8-10 ft through the week in this region. Northwest swell that propagated into the northern and northeast waters will subside by Mon. Another set of northerly swell will begin to move through the far northeast waters Tue night through Thu. $$ AReinhart