000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210356 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Feb 21 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure ridging along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains of Mexico in combination with lower pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region is maintaining strong gale force north to northeast gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Wave heights with these winds are in the 10-14 ft range. Strong high pressure will weaken as it shifts eastward through Sun evening. This will allow for the tight pressure gradient over southeastern Mexico to relax. The winds will begin to diminish to minimal gale force speeds Sun morning, and below gale force early on Sun afternoon. Large seas generated from this strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching to near 106W by Sun afternoon. Latest model guidance suggests the next Gulf of Tehuantepec strong gap wind event is expected to commence Mon, reaching gale force by late Mon morning. The guidance indicates that this could be a strong gale wind event by late Mon afternoon and could last until through Tuesday afternoon. Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from a 1009 mb low over northwestern Colombia to a second 1009 mb low near 06N86W to 01N101W, where it transitions to the ITCZ from 01N102W to beyond the area at 00N140W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the 1009 mb low. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more information on the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale event. ASCAT data reveal fresh to strong northwest winds north of Punta Eugenia, while light and variable winds are over the central and southern sections of the Gulf of California. Winds over the Gulf of California will become fresh to strong Sun afternoon itno Mon. Wave model guidance is indicating that wave heights could be near 8 ft in the central Gulf on Sun night. These winds could funnel through the Baja California passages into the Pacific waters at times. Models also indicate the potential for these winds to pick up again by Thu. A large set of northwest swell is propagating through the waters west of Baja California north of Punta Eugenia. This swell will continue to advance southward reaching to near 24N Sun, then subside Mon night through Tue, before another set of northerly swell begins to propagate through those same waters from late Tue night through Thu, then begin to decay. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... ASCAT data passes indicate moderate to fresh northeast winds north of the trough and gentle to moderate south to southwest winds south of the same trough. Wave heights in this part of the discussion area in the range of 5-7 ft due to a south to southwest swell south of the trough and to mixed northeast and northwest swell north of same trough, where swell is propagating away from the Tehuantepec and Papagayo regions. Strong high pressure building southeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea will bring pulsing fresh to strong northeast winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region each night through next week. North winds will pulse moderate to locally fresh speeds across the Gulf of Panama through Sun, before diminishing to mainly fresh speeds Mon in the afternoon. These winds are forecast to pulse back up to fresh to strong speeds late Mon night into Tue. Wave heights are forecast to build to 8 ft with these winds. Light to gentle winds will continue elsewhere. Large wave heights generated by the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale wind event will propagate through the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through early Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The combination of strong high pressure north of the area and lower pressures near the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong northeast to east winds over a large part of the area, namely north of 14N and west of 130W. More consistent strong northeast to east winds are occurring north of 20N, where wave heights have build to the range of 8-11 ft. These conditions are forecast to continue into Mon morning, before they begin to improve. Northwest swell that is propagating into the northern and northeast waters will continue to do so through early next week. Another set of northerly swell will begin to move through the far northeast waters Tue night through Thu. $$ Torres