000 AXPZ20 KNHC 202240 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Feb 20 2021 Corrected Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and Within 750 nm of Ecuador section to include Gulf of Panama fresh to strong winds Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure ridging along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains of Mexico in combination with lower pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region is maintaining strong gale force north to northeast gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Wave heights with these winds are in the 10-15 ft range. The strong high pressure will begin to weaken as it shifts eastward through Sun evening. This will allow for the very tight pressure gradient in place over southeastern Mexico to begin to relax. The winds will respond to this by diminishing to minimal gale force speeds late tonight into Sun, and to below gale force early on Sun afternoon. Large seas generated from this strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching to near 108W by Sun afternoon. Latest model guidance suggests that the next Gulf of Tehuantepec strong gap wind event is expected to commence early on Mon, reaching gale force by late Mon morning or early Mon afternoon. The guidance indicates that this could be a strong gale wind event by late Mon afternoon or early in the evening that lasts into early Tue afternoon. Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from a 1010 mb low over northwestern Colombia to 08N78W to 06N90W and 03N101W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 04N113W to 03N121W to 02N130W and to beyond the area at 02N140W. No significant convection is noted. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more information on the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale event. Latest ASCAT data reveal gentle to moderate northwest winds west Baja California Peninsula and south of Punta Eugenia, and fresh to strong northwest winds north of Punta Eugenia. Light and variable winds are over the central and southern sections of the Gulf of California, while gentle to moderate southeast to south are over the northern Gulf of California. Winds over the Gulf of California will become fresh to strong Sun through Mon. Wave model guidance is indicating that wave heights could reach 8 ft in the central Gulf on Sun night. These winds could funnel through the Baja California passages into the Pacific waters at times. A large set of northwest swell is propagating through the waters west of Baja California north of Punta Eugenia. This swell continue to advance southward reaching to near 23N Sun, then subside Mon night through Tue, before another set of northerly swell begins to propagate through those same waters from late Tue night through Thu, then begin to decay. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...Corrected Latest ASCAT data passes generally indicate gentle to moderate northeast winds north of the trough described under the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section and gentle to moderate south to southwest winds south of the same trough. Wave heights in this part of the discussion area in the range of 5-7 ft due to a south to southwest swell south of the trough and to mixed northeast and northwest swell north of same trough, where swell is propagating away from the Tehuantepec and Papagayo regions. Strong high pressure building southeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea will act to bring pulsing fresh to strong northeast winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region each night during the next several days. North winds will pulse to fresh speeds across the Gulf of Panama through Sun, then to fresh to strong speeds Sun night and early on Mon, before diminishing to mainly fresh speeds Mon afternoon. These winds are forecast to pulse back up to fresh to strong speeds late Mon night into Tue. Wave heights are forecast to build to 8 ft with these winds. Light to gentle winds will continue elsewhere. Large wave heights generated by the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale wind event will propagate through the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through early Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The combination of strong high pressure north of the area and lower pressures near the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong northeast to east winds over a large part of the area, namely north of 07N and west of 120W. More consistent strong northeast to east winds are occurring north of 24N, where wave heights have build to the range of 8-10 ft. These conditions are forecast to continue into Mon morning, before they begin to improve. Northwest swell that is propagating into the northern and northeast waters will continue to do so through early next week. Another set of northerly swell will begin to move through the far northeast waters Tue night through Wed night. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are observed from 06N-12N between 106W-113W. $$ Aguirre