000 AXPZ20 KNHC 201821 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Feb 20 2021 Corrected ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure ridging along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains of Mexico in combination with lower pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region is leading to strong gale force gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec as was confirmed by an ASCAT pass from last night that revealed peak wind speeds of up to 45 kt. Wave heights with these winds are in the 13-18 ft range. The strong high pressure will begin to weaken as it shifts eastward through Sun evening. This will allow for the very tight pressure gradient in place over southeastern Mexico to begin to relax. The winds will respond to this by diminishing to minimal gale force speeds late tonight into Sun, and to below gale force speeds by early Sun. Large seas generated from this strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching to near 108W by Sun afternoon. Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Corrected A surface trough extends from a 1011 mb low over northwestern Colombia to 08N78W to 07N86W to 03N91W and to 01N102W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 01N112W to 03N121W to 02N130W and to beyond the area at 02N140W. No significant convection is noted. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more information on the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning. Overnight ASCAT data passes show gentle to moderate northwest winds on either side of the Baja California Peninsula, except for a pocket of moderate to fresh northwest winds over the central section of the Gulf of California. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds are just north of the discussion area east of 125W. These winds will soon advect southward to the waters north of Punta Eugenia through tonight. Winds over the Gulf of California will increase to fresh to strong Sun through Mon. Wave model guidance is indicating that wave heights could reach 8 ft in the central Gulf on Sun night. These winds could funnel through the Baja California passages into the Pacific waters at times. Northwest swell will build west of Baja California today through Sun, then subside some through Tue, before another set of northerly swell begins to propagate through those same waters through Wed night OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Overnight ASCAT data passes generally indicate gentle to moderate northeast winds north of the trough described under the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section and gentle to moderate south to southwest winds south of the same trough. Wave heights in this part of the discussion area in the range of 5-7 ft due to a south to southwest swell south of the trough and to mixed northeast and northwest swell propagating away from the Tehuantepec and Papagayo regions. Strong high pressure building southeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea will act to bring pulsing fresh to strong northeast winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region each night during the next several days. North winds will pulse to fresh speeds across the Gulf of Panama through late in the upcoming week. Light to gentle winds will continue elsewhere. Large seas generated by the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale wind event will propagate through the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through early Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The combination of strong high pressure north of the area and lower pressures near the ITCZ is supporting fresh trade winds across the deep tropics west of 120W. High pressure will build north of the area during this weekend, leading to strong trades and higher wave heights over much of the area west of 120W Sun through Mon. Northwest swell will propagate into the northern and northeast waters today, and continue through early next week. Another set of northerly swell will begin to move through the far northeast waters Tue night through Wed night. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are presently weakening over the waters from 05N-12N between 111W-120W and also within 30 nm of a line from 08N120W to 08N125W. $$ Aguirre