000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200905
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Feb 20 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure along the
eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre is producing near storm-force
gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, based on scatterometer data
of 45 kt. Wave heights in the 14-22 ft range. Winds will diminish
to minimal gale force early Sun, and fall below gale force by Sun
afternoon. Mariners planning to navigate across or near the Gulf
of Tehuantepec region through tonight should be aware of this 
significant wind event and hazardous marine conditions. Large 
seas generated from this strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind 
event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 
8 ft or greater reaching 107W by Sun.

Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the
National Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 04N94W to 05N103W. The 
ITCZ continues from 05N103W to 06N110W to 07N121W to 05N132W and
to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 05N to 10N between 111W and 119W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more information on the ongoing Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gale warning. 

Scatterometer data shows moderate northwest winds on either side
of the Baja California Peninsula. Fresh to strong N to NW winds
are expected north of Punta Eugenia through tonight. Winds in the
Gulf of California will become fresh to strong Sun through Mon. 
Wave model guidance is indicating that wave heights could reach 8
ft in the central Gulf on Sun night. These winds could funnel 
through the Baja California passages into the Pacific waters at 
times. Northwest swell will build west of Baja California this 
weekend. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scatterometer data shows gentle to moderate winds across the
region, and seas area in the 5-7 ft range. Winds will pulse to 
fresh to strong in the Gulf of Papagayo region each night during 
the next several days. North winds will pulse to fresh across 
the Gulf of Panama through mid-week. Light to gentle winds will 
continue elsewhere. Large seas generated by a strong winds in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec will propagate through the offshore waters 
of Guatemala and El Salvador through early Sun. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The combination of high pressure north of the area and lower 
pressures near the ITCZ is supporting fresh trade winds across 
the deep tropics west of 120W. High pressure will build north of 
the area this weekend, leading to strong trades and higher wave 
heights over much of the area west of 120W Sun through Mon. 
Northwest swell will propagate into the northern and northeast 
waters today, and continue through early next week. Another set 
of northerly swell will begin to move through the far northeast 
waters Tue night through Wed night.

$$
Mundell