000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190916
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Feb 19 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building
southward into the western Gulf of Mexico will cause winds to 
increase to gale-force across the Gulf of Tehunatepec this
morning. Forecast models suggest that the winds will reach their
peak by tonight very close to storm-force. The strong winds will
elevate seas substantially, which are forecast to peak around 
22-23 ft tonight. Mariners planning to navigate across or near 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the next two days should be aware
of this significant wind event. Large seas generated from this 
strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will spread well away 
from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching 
105W by Sun.

Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the
National Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N77W to 03N94W to 03N110W. The 
ITCZ continues from 03N110W to 06N123W to 03N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 115W and 
125W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more information on the Gulf of Tehuantepec
gale warning. Winds will diminish below gale force early Sun.
However, winds are expected to reach gale force again early next
week.

Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh NW winds west of the 
Baja California Peninsula. Seas in the 8-9 ft range off Baja 
California Norte will subside below 8 ft on Fri. Fresh to strong 
winds are forecast over the Gulf of California tonight and Fri, 
and again Sun through Mon night. These winds could funnel through
the Baja California passages into the Pacific waters at times. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Gulf of Papagayo 
region each night during the next several days. Winds will pulse 
to fresh to locally strong Sat night through Mon night in the 
Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. 
Large seas generated by a strong winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
will propagate through the offshore waters of Guatemala and El 
Salvador through early Sun. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The combination of high pressure north of the area and lower
pressures near the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade 
winds across the deep tropics west of 120W. Strong high pressure
will build north of the area this weekend, causing strong trades
and higher seas across much of the area west of 120W Sun and Mon.
NW swell continues to subside over the area. More northerly swell
will arrive on Sun, and continue through early next week.

$$
Mundell