000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190358 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Feb 19 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building southward into the western Gulf of Mexico will cause winds to increase to gale-force across the Gulf of Tehunatepec overnight. Forecast models suggest that the winds will reach their peak by late Fri very close to storm force. We will continue to monitor this situation, and the warning could be upgraded if the models trend any higher. The strong winds through the gap will elevate seas substantially, which are forecast to peak between 22-23 ft Fri night. Mariners planning to navigate across or near the Gulf of Tehuantepec over the next few days should be aware of this significant wind event. Large seas generated from this strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching 105W by Sun. Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 04N85W to 03N99W. The ITCZ continues from 03N99W to 07N116W to 03N134W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 108W and 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more information on the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning. Winds will diminish below gale force early Sun. However, winds are expected to increase and could reach gale force again early next week. The pressure gradient between a 1028 mb high centered near 32N132W and low pressure over central Mexico is supporting moderate NW winds west of the Baja California Peninsula. Seas in the 8-9 ft range off Baja California Norte will subside below 8 ft on Fri. Fresh to strong winds are forecast over the Gulf of California tonight and Fri, and again Sun through Mon night. These winds could funnel through the Baja California passages into the Pacific waters at times. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Gulf of Papagayo region each night during the next several days. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong Sat night through Mon night in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. Large seas generated by a strong winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will propagate through the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Fri through early Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The combination of high pressure north of the area and lower pressures near the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the deep tropics west of 120W. A much stronger high is forecast to build north of the area this weekend, causing strong trades and higher seas across much of the area W of 120W late this weekend and early next week. NW swell continues to subside over the area. A new set of northerly swell will arrive Sun through early next week. $$ Mundell