000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182102
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Feb 18 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A large and strong high
pressure system is building southward across the central U.S. 
behind a slow-moving cold front that is moving across the Gulf 
of Mexico. This weather pattern should cause winds to increase to
gale-force across the Gulf of Tehunatepec overnight. The models
suggest that the winds will reach their peak by late Fri., and
there is some indication that they could be very close to storm
force. We will continue to monitor this situation, and the
warning could be upgraded if the models trend any higher. The
strong winds through the gap will elevate seas substancially,
which are forecast to peak between 20 and 22 ft. by Fri night.
Mariners planning to navigate across or near the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec over the next few days should be aware of this 
significant wind event. Large seas generated from this strong 
Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will spread well away from the
Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far west
as 105W by Sun.

Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the
National Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 04N85W to 02N99W. The 
ITCZ continues from 02N99W to 07N115W to 03N135W to 04N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 
108W and 116W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more information on the Gulf of Tehuantepec
gale warning. Winds will diminish below gale force early Sun.
However, winds are expected to increase and could reach gale 
force again early next week.

The pressure gradient between a 1028 mb high centered near 
32N132W and low pressure over central Mexico is supporting 
moderate winds off much of the Baja California Peninsula. Seas 
are in the 8-9 ft range off Baja California Norte, but they 
should subside tonight and are forecast to fall below 8 ft on 
Fri. Fresh to strong winds are forecast to begin over the Gulf 
of California tonight and on Fri, and then again Sun through Mon
night. These winds could funnel through the Baja California 
passages into the Pacific waters at times. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds will pulse to fresh to strong over the Gulf of Papagayo 
each night through Tue night. Winds will pulse to moderate in 
the Gulf of Panama through Fri night before increasing to fresh 
to locally strong Sat night through Tue night. Elsewhere, light 
to gentle winds will prevail, except gentle to moderate offshore 
of Ecuador. Moderate SW swell will continue across the equatorial
and Central American offshore waters for the next several days. 
Large seas generated by a strong gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will propagate through the offshore waters of 
Guatemala and El Salvador Fri through early Sun. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The combination of high pressure north of the area and lower
pressure along the ITCZ is supporting moderate trade winds 
across the deep tropics west of about 130W. A much stronger high
is forecast to build north of the area this weekend, causing
strong trades and higher seas across much of the area W of about
120W late this weekend and early next week. 

NW swell continues to subside over the area. A new set of 
northerly swell will arrive Sun through early next week.

$$
Cangialosi