000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181542
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Feb 18 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A large and strong area of 
high pressure is forecast to build north of the area behind a 
strong cold front that is moving across the Gulf of Mexico. 
Sustained gap winds reaching gale force are expected to start 
overnight across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds will 
increase to strong gales Fri and Fri night, when seas will peak 
between 20 and 22 ft. Some of the models suggest that the winds 
could briefly reach minimal storm force on Fri., and there is a 
chance that a storm warning could be issued if the models trend 
higher with the winds. Regardless of the exact strength of the 
winds, mariners planning to navigate across or near the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec over the next few days should be aware of this 
significant wind event. Large seas generated from this strong 
Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will spread well away from the
Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far west
as 105W by Sun.

Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the
National Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 04N85W to 02N99W. The 
ITCZ continues from 02N99W to 07N115W to 03N135W to 04N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 
108W and 116W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more information on the Gulf of Tehuantepec
gale warning. Winds will diminish below gale force early Sun. 
Looking ahead, winds may reach gale force again early next week.

The pressure gradient between a 1028 mb high centered near 
32N132W and low pressure over central Mexico is supporting 
moderate winds off Baja California Norte. Seas are in the 8-10 ft
range, but they should subside through the day today and are forecast
to fall below 8 ft on Fri. Moderate winds also prevail off Baja 
California Sur, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Fresh to
strong winds are forecast in the Gulf of California tonight and 
Fri, and then again Sun through Mon night. These winds may funnel
through the Baja California passages into the Pacific waters. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds will pulse to fresh to strong over the Gulf of Papagayo 
each night through Mon night. Winds will pulse to moderate in the
Gulf of Panama through Fri night before increasing to fresh to 
locally strong Sat night through Mon night. Elsewhere, light to 
gentle winds will prevail, except gentle to moderate offshore of 
Ecuador. Moderate SW swell will continue across the equatorial 
and Central American offshore waters for the next several days. 
Large seas generated by a strong gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will propagate through the offshore waters of 
Guatemala and El Salvador Fri through early Sun. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The combination of high pressure north of the area and lower
pressure along the ITCZ is supporting moderate trade winds 
across the deep tropics west of about 130W. A much stronger high
is forecast to build north of the area this weekend, causing
strong trades and higher seas across much of the area W of about
120W late this weekend and early next week. 

NW swell continues to subside over the area. A new set of 
northerly swell will arrive Sat night through early next week.

$$
Cangialosi