000 AXPZ20 KNHC 180247 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Feb 18 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0240 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A large area of high pressure will build north of the area following a strong cold front slowly moving through the Gulf of Mexico later through late week. Sustained gap winds reaching gale force are expected to start late Thu night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds will increase to strong gales Fri and Fri night, when seas will peak near 23 ft. There is a possibility that winds may briefly reach minimal storm force on Friday. The situation will be monitored over the next few days, and a storm warning may be required. Mariners planning to navigate across or near the Gulf of Tehuantepec later this week should keep aware of this developing forecast. Large seas generated from this strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far west as 105W by Sun. Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N83W to 03N104W. The ITCZ continues from 03N104W to 05N117W to 02N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 108W and 112W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 114W and 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning. Winds will diminish below gale force early Sun. Looking ahead, winds may reach gale force again early next week. The pressure gradient between 1030 mb high pressure centered near 33N132W and low pressure over Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh winds off Baja California Norte. Seas remain in the 8-12 ft range, but will gradually subside with the winds diminishing. Moderate winds prevail off Baja California Sur, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas in the 8-9 ft range in NW swell off Baja California Sur extends SE to off the coast of Cabo Corrientes. This swell will subside through the end of the week. Fresh to strong winds are forecast in the Gulf of California Thu night and Fri, and then again Sun through Mon night. These winds may funnel through the Baja California passages into the Pacific waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds will pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Papagayo tonight before increasing to fresh to strong Fri through Mon night. Winds will pulse to moderate in the Gulf of Panama through Fri night before increasing to fresh to locally strong Sat night through Mon night. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail, except gentle to moderate offshore of Ecuador. Moderate SW swell will continue across the equatorial and Central American offshore waters for the next several days. Large seas generated by a strong gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will propagate through the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Fri through early Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between 1030 mb high pressure centered near 33N132W and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E trades across the area north of the ITCZ to 22N and west of 120W. Trades will increase to fresh to strong this weekend as high pressure north of the area strengthens. NW swell continues to subside over the area. A new set of northerly swell will arrive Sat night through early next week. $$ AL