000 AXPZ20 KNHC 172021 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Feb 17 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A large area of high pressure will build north of the area following a strong cold front slowly moving through the Gulf of Mexico later through late week. Sustained gap winds reaching gale force are expected to start late Thu night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds will increase to strong gales Fri and Fri night, when seas will peak near 23 ft. There is a possibility that winds may briefly reach minimal storm force on Friday. The situation will be monitored over the next few days, and a storm warning may be required. Mariners planning to navigate across or near the Gulf of Tehuantepec later this week should keep aware of this developing forecast. Large seas generated from this strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far west as 105W by Sun. Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 1008 mb low pressure over northern Colombia near 10N76W to 05N79W to 07N84W to 03N101W. The ITCZ continues from 03N101W to 07N117W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 77W and 79W, and from 08N to 13N between 108W and 112W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm north of the ITCZ between 114W and 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning. Winds will diminish below gale force early Sun. Looking ahead, winds may reach gale force again early next week. The pressure gradient between high pressure centered just north of the area and low pressure over the SW United States is relaxing allowing for fresh to strong winds off the coast of Baja California Norte to diminish to moderate to fresh. Seas remain in the the 8-13 ft range, but will gradually subside with the winds diminishing. Moderate winds prevail off Baja California Sur, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas in the 8-9 ft range in NW swell off Baja California Sur extends SE to off the coast of Cabo Corrientes. This swell will subside through the end of the week. Fresh to strong winds are forecast in the Gulf of California Thu night and Fri, and then again Sun through Mon night. These winds may bleed through Baja California passages into the Pacific waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds will pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Papagayo the next couple of days before increasing to fresh to strong Fri through Mon night. Winds will pulse to moderate in the Gulf of Panama through Fri night before increasing to fresh to locally strong Sat night through Mon night. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail, except gentle to moderate offshore of Ecuador. Moderate SW swell will continue across the equatorial and Central American offshore waters for the next several days. Large seas generated by a strong gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will propagate through the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Fri through early Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between high pressure centered just north of the area and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E trades across the area north of the ITCZ to 22N and west of 120W. Trades will increase to fresh to strong this weekend as high pressure north of the area strengthens. NW swell, with seas in the 7-9 ft range, is propagating across the waters, covering much of the waters from 05N to 22N and west of 105W. This swell will slowly subside through the end of the week. A new set of northerly swell will arrive Sat night through early next week. $$ Lewitsky