000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170858 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Feb 17 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0840 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning...A large area of high pressure will build north of the area following a strong cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico from mid to late week. Sustained gap winds reaching gale force are expected to start late Thu night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds will increase to strong gales Fri and Fri night, when seas will peak near 22 ft. There is a possibility that winds may briefly reach minimal storm force on Friday. The situation will be monitored over the next few days, and a storm warning may be required. Mariners planning to navigate across or near the Gulf of Tehuantepec later this week should keep aware of this developing forecast. Large seas generated from this strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far west as 105W by Sun. Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 03N102W. The ITCZ continues from 03N102W to 05N117W to 04N125W to beyond 04N139W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 09N between 114W and 120W, and from 05N to 09N between 127W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning. Winds will diminish below gale force early Sun. The pressure gradient between 1028 mb high pressure centered near 32N136W and low pressure over the SW United States is supporting fresh to strong winds off the coast of Baja California Norte, where seas are in the 9-12 ft range. These wind speeds will continue today before diminishing. Moderate to fresh winds prevail off Baja California Sur, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas in the 8-9 ft range in NW swell off Baja California Sur extends SE to off the coast of Cabo Corrientes. This swell will subside through the end of the week. Fresh to strong winds are forecast in the Gulf of California late Thu night and Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds will pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Papagayo the next couple of days before increasing to fresh to strong Fri night through Sat night. Winds will pulse to moderate in the Gulf of Panama through Fri night before increasing to fresh Sat night. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail. Moderate SW swell will continue across the equatorial and Central American offshore waters for the next several days. Large seas generated by a strong gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will propagate through the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador beginning Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1028 mb is centered near 32N136W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E trades across the area north of the ITCZ to 23N and west of 120W. NW swell, with seas in excess of 8 ft, is propagating across the waters, covering much of the waters north of 05N and west of 105W. This swell will slowly subside through the end of the week. $$ AL