000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170248
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Feb 17 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0240 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 02N102W. The ITCZ 
continues from 02N102W to 05N117W to 04N125W to beyond 04N139W. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 08N between 81W and
90W, and from 05N to 09N between 115W and 138W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between 1027 mb high pressure centered 
near 32N134W and low pressure over the SW United States supports
fresh to strong winds off the coast of Baja California Norte.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail off Baja California Sur. Light to
gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Light to gentle winds prevail 
elsewhere. Seas are in the 9-12 ft range off the Baja California
Norte, and 8-9 ft off Baja California Sur SE to off the coast of
Cabo Corrientes.

Winds will increase to fresh to strong off Baja California Norte
tonight into Wed. Fresh to strong winds are forecast in the Gulf
of California late Thu night and Fri. NW swell prevails off Baja
California extending southeast to the waters off Cabo 
Corrientes. This swell will subside through the end of the week. 

Looking ahead for the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a large area of high 
pressure will build north of the area following a strong cold 
front moving through the Gulf of Mexico from mid to late week. 
Sustained gap winds reaching gale force are expected to start 
late Thu night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds will 
increase to strong gales Fri and Fri night. This situation will 
be monitored over the next two to three days, and a storm warning
may be required for Fri and Fri night. Mariners planning to 
navigate across or near the Gulf of Tehuantepec later this week 
should keep aware of this developing forecast.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds will pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Papagayo the next few 
days before increasing to fresh to strong Fri night through Sat 
night. Winds will pulse to moderate in the Gulf of Panama through
Fri night before increasing to fresh Sat night. Elsewhere, light
to gentle winds will prevail. Moderate SW swell will continue 
across the equatorial and Central American offshore waters for 
the next several days. Large seas generated by a strong gap wind 
event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will propagate through the 
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador beginning Fri. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1027 mb is centered near 32N134W. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E
trades across the area north of the ITCZ to 22N and west of 
120W.

NW swell, with seas in excess of 8 ft, is propagating across the
waters nd covering much of the waters north of 05N and west of
105W. This swell will slowly subside through the end of the 
week. Looking ahead, the next set of northerly swell may arrive 
this weekend.

$$
AL