000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162151 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Feb 16 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 02N88W to 03N99W. The ITCZ continues from 03N100W to 05N118W, then west of a trough from 05N112W to 06N128W to 06N129W to beyond 04N139W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 04N between 82W and 90W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between 1031 mb high pressure centered near 32N134W and a surface trough across the Gulf of California continues to support moderate to fresh winds off the coast of the Baja California peninsula north of 27N. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range off the Baja California peninsula, with seas 8 ft or greater extending southeast to the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are in the 4-7 ft elsewhere off the coast of Mexico, with long-period SW swell persists across the waters south of Cabo Corrientes. Winds will increase to fresh to strong off Baja California Norte tonight into Wed. Fresh to strong winds are forecast in the Gulf of California Thu afternoon into Fri. Large NW swell prevails off Baja California, with seas 8 ft or greater extending southeast to the Revillagigedo Islands. The swell will continue spreading southeast through the week, reaching the waters off Cabo Corrientes today, where the NW swell will mix with SW swell. Looking ahead for the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a large area of high pressure will build north of the area following another, stronger cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico from mid to late week. Sustained gap winds reaching gale force are expected to start late Thu night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds will increase to strong gales Fri and Fri night. This situation will be monitored over the next two to three days, and a storm warning may be required for Fri and Fri night. Mariners planning to navigate across or near the Gulf of Tehuantepec later this week should keep aware of this developing forecast. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds will pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Papagayo the next few days before increasing to fresh to strong Fri night through Sat night. Winds will pulse to moderate in the Gulf of Panama Fri night before increasing to fresh Sat night. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail. Moderate SW swell will continue across the equatorial and Central American offshore waters for the next several days. Large seas generated by a strong gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will propagate through the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador beginning Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1031 mb is centered near 32N134W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E trades across the area north of the ITCZ to 22N and west of 118W. NW swell, with seas in excess of 8 ft, is propagating across the waters west of a line from the Revillagigedo Islands to 05N115W. This swell will continue to spread southeastward, with seas of 8 ft or greater covering much of the waters north of 05N and west of 105W by this afternoon before subsiding through the end of the week. The NW swell will mix with SW swell east of 120W. Looking ahead, the next set of northerly swell may arrive this weekend. $$ Torres