000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160844
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Feb 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 04N92W to 05N101W. The 
ITCZ continues from 05N101W to 06N114W to 03N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 02N to 06N between 83W and 88W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between 1028 mb high pressure centered 
near 32N136W and a surface trough across the Gulf of California 
is supporting moderate to fresh winds off the coast of the Baja 
California peninsula. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. 
Seas are in the 8-11 ft range off the Baja California peninsula, 
with seas 8 ft or greater extending southeast to the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are in the 4-7 ft elsewhere off the 
coast of Mexico, with long- period SW swell persists across the 
waters south of Cabo Corrientes.

Winds will increase to fresh to strong off Baja California Norte
tonight into early Wed. Fresh to strong winds are forecast in 
the Gulf of California Thu night and Fri. Large NW swell prevails
off Baja California, with seas 8 ft or greater extending 
southeast to the Revillagigedo Islands. The swell will continue 
spreading southeast, reaching the waters off Cabo Corrientes 
today, where the NW swell will mix with SW swell. 

Farther south, high pressure building in the wake of a cold 
front over the Gulf of Mexico will support strong gap winds 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight and Tue.

Looking ahead for the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a large area of high 
pressure will build north of the area following another, stronger
cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico from mid to late 
week. Sustained gap winds reaching gale force are expected to 
start Thu night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds will 
increase to strong gales Fri and Fri night. This situation will 
be monitored over the next two to three days, and a storm warning
may be required for Fri and Fri night. Mariners planning to 
navigate across or near the Gulf of Tehuantepec later this week 
should keep aware of this developing forecast.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds will pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Papagayo the next few 
days before increasing to fresh to strong Fri night through Sat 
night. Winds will pulse to moderate in the Gulf of Panama through
Fri night before increasing to fresh Sat night. Elsewhere, light
to gentle winds will prevail. Moderate SW swell will continue 
across the equatorial and Central American offshore waters for 
the next several days. Large seas generated by a strong gap wind 
event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will propagate through the 
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador beginning Fri. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1030 mb is centered near 32N136W. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E
trades across the area north of the ITCZ to 25N and west of 
120W.

NW swell, with seas in excess of 8 ft, is propagating across the
waters west of a line from the Revillagigedo Islands to 05N115W.
This swell will continue to spread southeastward, with seas of 8
ft or greater covering much of the waters north of 05N and west 
of 105W by this afternoon before subsiding through the end of 
the week. The NW swell will mix with SW swell east of 120W. 
Looking ahead, the next set of northerly swell may arrive this 
weekend.

$$
AL