000 AXPZ20 KNHC 152101 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Feb 15 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 1010 mb low pressure over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 04N95W to 06N105W. The ITCZ continues from 06N105W to 06N123W, then resumes from 05N127W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 06N between 84W and 87W, from 07N to 10N between 107W and 114W, and from 05N to 07N between 121W and 123W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between 1030 mb high pressure centered near 32N136W and low pressure over the southwestern United States is supporting moderate to fresh winds off the coast of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range off Baja California Norte and 7-10 ft off Baja California Sur. Seas are in the 4-7 ft elsewhere off the coast of Mexico, with long-period SW swell persists across the waters south of Cabo Corrientes. Winds will increase to fresh to strong off Baja California Norte Tue into early Wed as a cold front moves into the area, filtering through central Gulf of California passages. Fresh to strong winds are also forecast in the Gulf of California Thu night and Fri as the pressure gradient across the area tightens. Large NW swell off Baja California will spread southeast, with seas in excess of 8 ft reaching the Revillagigedo Islands by this evening, and off Cabo Corrientes by Tue, where the NW swell will mix with SW swell. Farther south, a cold front moving into the Gulf of Mexico will support strong gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight and Tue. Looking ahead for the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a large area of high pressure will build north of the area following another, stronger cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico from mid to late week. Sustained gap winds reaching gale force are expected to start Thu night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds will likely increase to strong gales Fri and Fri night. This situation will be monitored over the next two to three days, and a storm warning may be required for Fri and Fri night. Mariners planning to navigate across or near the Gulf of Tehuantepec later this week should keep aware of this developing forecast. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo, increasing to fresh Tue, then increasing to fresh to strong Fri night through Sat night. The strongest winds are expected Sat and Sat night as high pressure over Central America strengthens behind a cold front moving through the NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will persist across the region, except pulsing to moderate in the Gulf of Panama, increasing to fresh Sat night. Moderate SW swell will continue across the equatorial and Central American offshore waters for the next several days. Looking ahead, large seas generated by a strong gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec may propagate through the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador beginning Fri, reaching around 17 ft near 12N95W. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1030 mb is centered near 32N136W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E trades across the area north of the ITCZ to 25N and west of 120W. NW swell, with seas in excess of 8 ft, is propagating across the waters northwest of a line from the southern tip of Baja California to 15N120W to 04N130W to 03N140W. This swell will continue to spread southeastward, with seas of 8 ft or greater covering much of the waters north of 05N and west of 105W by Tue afternoon through Wed subsiding by the end of the week. The NW swell will mix with SW swell east of 120W. Looking ahead, the next set of northerly swell may arrive this weekend. $$ Lewitsky