000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151519 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Feb 15 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1515 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 1010 mb low pressure over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 03N98W to 05N105W. The ITCZ continues from 05N105W to 06N122W, with 1010 mb low pressure near 06N125W, then continues from 05N127W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 11N between 102W and 105W, and from 06N to 10N between 107W and 112W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between 1029 mb high pressure centered near 31N136W and low pressure over the southwestern United States is supporting moderate to fresh winds off the coast of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere, except moderate to fresh south of the coast of Oaxaca. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range off Baja California Norte and 7-10 ft off Baja California Sur. Seas are in the 4-6 ft elsewhere off the coast of Mexico, except to 7 ft south of the coast of Oaxaca, with long-period SW swell persists across the waters south of Cabo Corrientes. Winds will strengthen off Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California Tue and Tue night as a cold front moves into the area. Fresh to strong winds are also forecast in the Gulf of California Thu night and Fri as the pressure gradient across the area tightens. Large NW swell off Baja California will spread southeast, with seas in excess of 8 ft reaching the Revillagigedo Islands today, and off Cabo Corrientes by Tue, where the NW swell will mix with SW swell. Farther south, a cold front moving into the Gulf of Mexico will support strong gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight and Tue. Looking ahead for the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a large area of high pressure will build north of the area following another, stronger cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico from mid to late week. Sustained gap winds reaching gale force are expected to start Thu night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds will likely increase to strong gales Fri and Fri night. This situation will be monitored over the next two to three days, and a storm warning may be required for Fri and Fri night. Mariners planning to navigate across or near the Gulf of Tehuantepec later this week should keep aware of this developing forecast. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo during the early mornings, increasing to fresh Tue night, then increasing to fresh to strong Fri and Fri night. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will persist across the region, except pulsing to moderate in the Gulf of Panama. Moderate SW swell will continue across the equatorial and Central American offshore waters for the next several days. Looking ahead, large seas generated by a strong gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec may propagate through the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador beginning Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1029 mb is centered near 31N136W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E trades across the area north of the ITCZ to 25N and west of 120W. NW swell, with seas in excess of 8 ft, is propagating across the waters northwest of a line from Baja California to 05N120W to 03N140W. This swell will continue to spread southeastward, with seas of 8 ft or greater covering much of the waters north of 05N and west of 105W by mid week, subsiding by the end of the week. The NW swell will mix with SW swell east of 120W. $$ Lewitsky