000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150845
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Feb 15 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 04N90W to 04N104W. The 
ITCZ continues from 04N104W to 05N120W to 04N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 85W and 
93W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between 1029 mb high pressure centered 
near 30N136W and low pressure over the southwestern United 
States is supporting moerate to fresh winds off the coast of the 
Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds prevail 
elsewhere. Seas are in the 10-12 ft range off Baja California 
Norte and 7-10 ft off Baja California Sur. Seas are in the 4-6 ft
elsewhere off the coast of Mexico. Farther south, long- period 
SW swell persists across the Mexican offshore waters south of 
Cabo Corrientes.

Winds will strengthen into mid week off Baja California Norte 
and the northern Gulf of California as a cold front moves into 
the area. Large NW swell off Baja California will spread SE, with
seas in excess of 8 ft reaching the Revillagigedo Islands today,
and off Cabo Corrientes by Tue, where the NW swell will mix with
SW swell. 

Farther south, a cold front moving into the Gulf of Mexico will
support strong gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight 
and Tue.

Looking ahead for the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a large area of high 
pressure will build north of the area following another, stronger
cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico from mid to late 
week. Sustained gap winds reaching gale force are expected to 
start Thu night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds will 
likely increase to strong gales Fri and Fri night. This 
situation will be monitored over the next two to three days, and 
a storm warning may be required for Fri and Fri night. Mariners 
planning to navigate across or near the Gulf of Tehuantepec later
this week should keep aware of this developing forecast.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo during the
early mornings through early next week, increasing to fresh to 
strong pulses by mid week. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will 
persist across the region. Moderate SW swell will continue across
the equatorial and Central American offshore waters for the next
several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1029 mb is centered near 30N136W. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E
trades across much of the area north of the ITCZ west of 120W. 

NW swell, with seas in excess of 8 ft, is propagating across the
waters northwest of a line from Baja California to 05N140W. This
swell will continue to spread southeastward, with seas of 8 ft 
or greater covering much of the waters north of 05N and west of 
105W by mid week. The NW swell will mix with SW swell east of 
120W.

$$
AL