000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142156 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Feb 14 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 02N98W to 07N110W. The ITCZ continues from 07N110W to 04N140W. No significant showers or thunderstorms are noted. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between 1029 mb high pressure centered near 31N137W and low pressure over the southern Rockies is supporting gale force winds just north of the forecast area, with fresh to strong winds off the coast of Baja California Norte. Gentle to moderate winds prevail off the coast of Baja California Sur. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range off Baja California Norte and 6-7 ft off Baja California Sur. Seas are in the 4-6 ft elsewhere off the coast of Mexico. Farther south, long- period SW swell persists across the Mexican offshore waters south of Cabo Corrientes. The fresh to strong NW winds off Baja California Norte will diminish slightly tonight as the low pressure to the east shifts eastward. Winds will increase once again into mid week off Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California as a cold front moves into the area. Large NW swell will increase seas to 13 ft near Guadalupe Island today. The swell will spread SE, with seas in excess of 8 ft reaching the Revillagigedo Islands by Mon, and off Cabo Corrientes by Tue, where the NW swell will mix with SW swell. Farther south, a cold front moving into the Gulf of Mexico will support strong gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night and Tue. Looking ahead for the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a large area of high pressure will build north of the area following another, stronger cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico from mid to late week. Sustained gap winds reaching gale force are expected to start Thu night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds will likely increase to strong gales Fri and Fri night. This situation will be monitored over the next two to three days, and a storm warning may be required for Fri and Fri night. Mariners planning to navigate across or near the Gulf of Tehuantepec later this week should keep aware of this developing forecast. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo during the early mornings through early next week, increasing to fresh to strong pulses by mid week. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will persist across the region. Moderate SW swell will continue across the equatorial and Central American offshore waters for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 1029 mb high pressure is centered near 31N137W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh NE to E trades across much of the area north of the ITCZ west of 120W. NW swell, with seas in excess of 8 ft, is propagating across the waters north of 15N and west of 130W. This swell will continue to spread southeastward, with seas of 8 ft or greater covering much of the waters north of 05N and west of 105W by mid week, mixing with SW swell east of 120W. $$ Christensen