000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141543
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Feb 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 03N90W to 05N110W. The 
ITCZ continues from 05N110W to 06N115W to 04N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is observed from 07N to 09N between 108W and
112W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between 1029 mb high pressure centered 
near 31N138W and low pressure over the southern Rockies is 
supporting gale force winds just north of the forecast area, with
fresh to strong winds off the coast of Baja California Norte. 
Gentle to moderate winds prevail off the coast of Baja California
Sur. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 
8-10 ft range off Baja California Norte and 6-7 ft off Baja 
California Sur. Seas are in the 4-6 ft elsewhere off the coast of
Mexico. Farther south, long- period SW swell persists across the
Mexican offshore waters south of Cabo Corrientes.

The fresh to strong NW winds off Baja California Norte will 
diminish slightly tonight. Winds will increase once again by mid 
week off Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of 
California as a cold front moves into the area. Large NW swell 
will increase seas to 13 ft near Guadalupe Island today. The 
swell will spread SE, with seas in excess of 8 ft reaching the 
Revillagigedo Islands by Mon, and off Cabo Corrientes by Tue, 
where the NW swell will mix with SW swell. Farther south, strong 
gap winds are expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night 
and Tue. Looking ahead, a strong gale force gap wind event is 
possible starting Thu night.

As an aside, models indicate strong to possibly gale force 
winds inland over north central Mexico today related to a mid to 
upper trough. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo during the
early mornings through early next week, increasing to fresh to 
strong pulses by mid week. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will 
persist across the region. Moderate SW swell will continue across
the equatorial and Central American offshore waters for the next
several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1029 mb high pressure is centered near 31N138W. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh NE to E trades 
north of the ITCZ west of 120W. Seas in this area are in the 
8-10 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds are noted over the
tropical Pacific east of 120W, with 5 to 7 ft primarily in SW
swell.

NW swell, with seas in excess of 8 ft, is propagating across the
waters north of 15N and west of 130W. This swell will continue 
to spread southeastward, with seas of 8 ft or greater covering 
much of the waters north of 05N and west of 105W by mid week, 
mixing with SW swell east of 120W.

$$
Christensen