000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140841
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Feb 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 04N86W to 05N112W. The 
ITCZ continues from 05N112W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is observed from 02N to 06N between 89W and 92W, from 
08N to 10N between 110W and 113W, and from 08N to 11N west of 
135W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between high pressure centered near 30N137W
and low pressure over the SW United States is supporting gale
force winds just north of the forecast area, with fresh to strong
winds off the coast of Baja California Norte. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail off the coast of Baja California Sur. Light to
gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range off
Baja California Norte and 6-7 ft off Baja California Sur. Seas
are in the 4-6 ft elsewhere off the coast of Mexico. Farther 
south, long- period SW swell persists across the Mexican offshore
waters south of Cabo Corrientes.

The fresh to strong NW winds off Baja California Norte will 
diminish slightly tonight. Winds will increase once again by mid 
week off Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of 
California as a cold front moves into the area. Large NW swell 
will increase seas to 13 ft near Guadalupe Island today. The 
swell will spread SE, with seas in excess of 8 ft reaching the 
Revillagigedo Islands by Mon, and off Cabo Corrientes by Tue, 
where the NW swell will mix with SW swell. Farther south, strong 
gap winds are expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night 
and Tue. Looking ahead, a strong gale force gap wind event is 
possible starting Thu night.

As an aside, models indicate strong to possibly gale force 
winds inland over north central Mexico today related to a mid to 
upper trough. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo during the
early mornings through early next week, increasing to fresh to 
strong pulses by mid week. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will 
persist across the region. Moderate SW swell will continue across
the equatorial and Central American offshore waters for the next
several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1028 mb is centered near 30N137W. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to locally strong 
NE to E trades north of the ITCZ to near 15N and west of 138W. 
Seas in this area are in the 8-10 ft range. Moderate to fresh 
trades are elsewhere north of the ITCZ to near 24N and west of 
120W. 

NW swell, with seas in excess of 8 ft, is propagating across the
waters north of 15N and west of 130W. This swell will continue 
to spread southeastward, with seas of 8 ft or greater covering 
much of the waters north of 05N and west of 105W by mid week, 
mixing with SW swell east of 120W.

$$
AL