000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140242 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Feb 14 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0240 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 04N80W to 05N112W. The ITCZ continues from 05N112W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate to convection is observed from 04N to 10N between 110W and 114W, and from 15N to 20N west of 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A mid to upper level trough is moving across north central Mexico, supporting lower surface pressure to the east, and tightening the pressure gradient between the lower pressure and high pressure west of the region. This being reinforced by a second upper disturbance moving across the southwest. Near gale conditions are possible tonight off the northern coast of Baja California, north of Punta Baja. As an aside, models also indicate strong to possibly gale force winds inland over north central Mexico tonight and Sun related to this mid to upper trough. Fresh to strong NW winds are evident elsewhere off Baja California, with accompanying NW swell. Farther south, long- period SW swell persists across the Mexican offshore waters south of Cabo Corrientes. The fresh to strong NW winds off Baja California Norte will persist through Sun before diminishing slightly Sun night. Winds will increase once again by mid week off Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California as a cold front moves into the area. Large NW swell will increase seas to 13 ft near Guadalupe Island Sun. The swell will spread SE, with seas in excess of 8 ft reaching the Revillagigedo Islands by Mon, and off Cabo Corrientes by Tue, where the NW swell will mix with SW swell. Farther south, strong gap winds are expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night and Tue, with gale conditions possible Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo during the early mornings through early next week, increasing to fresh to strong pulses by mid week. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will persist across the region. Moderate SW swell will continue across the equatorial and Central American offshore waters for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1028 mb is centered near 31N134W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong NE to E trades north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 135W. Seas in this area are in the 7-9 ft range. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 120W. NW swell, with seas in excess of 8 ft, has propagated into the waters north of 20N and west of 130W. This swell will spread southeastward, with seas of 8 ft or greater covering much of the waters north of 05N and west of 105W by mid week, mixing with SW swell east of 120W. $$ AL