000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131947 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Feb 13 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N83W to 03N95W to 05N105W. The intertropical convergence zone continues west from 05N105W to 06N115W to 04N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 06N to 09N west of 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A mid to upper level trough is moving across north central Mexico, supporting lower surface pressure to the east, and tightening the pressure gradient between the lower pressure and high pressure west of the region. Buoy observations off San Diego indicate fresh to strong NW winds and seas to 11 ft with NW swell. Near gale conditions are possible tonight off the northern coast of Baja California, north of Punta Baja. As an aside, models also indicate strong to possibly gale force winds inland over north central Mexico tonight and Sun related to this mid to upper trough. Fresh to strong NW winds are evident elsewhere off Baja California, with accompanying NW swell. Farther south, long- period SW swell persists across the Mexican offshore waters south of Cabo Corrientes. The fresh to strong NW winds off Baja California Norte will persist through Sun. The winds off Baja California Norte will diminish slightly Sun night, but return by mid week off Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California as front moves into the area. Large NW swell will accompany the winds, with seas to 13 ft near Guadalupe Island Sun, and seas in excess of 8 ft reaching the Revillagigedo Islands by Mon, and off Cabo Corrientes by Tue, mixing with SW swell. Farther south, expect strong gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night and Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh offshore winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region through early today with peak seas of 5-6 ft. Light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere during the next several days. Moderate SW swell of 5-7 ft will continue across the equatorial and Central American offshore waters for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 1027 mb high pressure is centered near 32N136W. An upper level low is centered west of the area, southeast of the Big Island near 15N148W, which is supporting a surface trough in that vicinity. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the surface trough is supporting fresh to strong NE to E trades north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 135W. Recent altimeter satellite data shows seas in this area remain in the 7-9 ft range. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 120W. NW swell in excess of 8 ft is starting to propagate into the waters north of 20N and west of 130W. This swell will spread southeastward, with seas of 8 ft or greater covering much of the waters north of 05N and west of 105W by mid week, mixing with SW swell east of 120W. $$ Christensen