000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131601
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Feb 13 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 08N83W to 03N95W to 05N105W. The 
intertropical convergence zone continues west from 05N105W to 
04N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed 
from 05N to 08N between 110W and 115W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A mid to upper level trough is moving across southern California
and Baja California Norte into the Sonoran Desert, supporting 
lower surface pressure to the east, and tightening the pressure
gradient between the lower pressure and high pressure west of
the region. Buoy observations off San Diego indicate fresh to 
strong NW winds and seas to 11 ft with NW swell. Near gale
conditions are possible tonight off the northern coast of Baja
California, north of Punta Baja, and a gale warning may be
required. As an aside, models also indicate strong to possibly 
gale force winds inland over north central Mexico tonight and Sun
related to this mid to upper trough. Fresh to strong NW winds 
are evident elsewhere off Baja California, with accompanying NW 
swell. Farther south, long- period SW swell persists across the 
Mexican offshore waters south of Cabo Corrientes.

The fresh to strong NW winds off Baja California Norte will 
persist through Sun. The winds off Baja California Norte will 
diminish slightly Sun night, but return by mid week off Baja 
California Norte and the northern Gulf of California as front 
moves into the area. Large NW swell will accompany the winds, 
with seas to 13 ft near Guadalupe Island Sun, and seas in excess 
of 8 ft reaching the Revillagigedo Islands by Mon, and off Cabo 
Corrientes by Tue, mixing with SW swell. Farther south, expect 
strong gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night and 
Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh offshore winds will prevail across the Gulf of
Papagayo region through early today with peak seas of 5-6 ft. 
Light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere during the next 
several days. Moderate SW swell of 5-7 ft will continue across 
the equatorial and Central American offshore waters for the next 
several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1027 mb high pressure is centered near 32N136W. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong NE to E 
trades north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 135W. Seas in 
this area are in the 7-9 ft range. Moderate to fresh trades are 
elsewhere north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 120W. 

NW swell will propagate into the waters north of 20N and west of
130W today. This swell will spread southeastward across the 
discussion waters through early next week. Seas of 8 ft or 
greater will cover much of the waters north of 05N and west of 
110W by early Tue.

$$
Christensen