000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130742
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Feb 13 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 09N84W to 04N103W. The ITCZ 
continues from 04N103W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 118W and 122W, and 
from 07N to 15N between 135W and 140W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A tightening pressure gradient between high pressure west of 
Baja California and and developing low pressure over the 
southwestern United States will result in fresh to strong NW 
winds north of Punta Eugenia beginning tonight. These winds will 
continue through the weekend before diminishing Sun night. Gale
force winds north of the area will generate large seas which will
propagate into the waters off Baja California Norte this weekend,
building seas to 12-15 ft by early Sun. A set of NW swell will 
reach the waters west of Baja California Norte Sun, which will 
merge with the existing large seas. This swell will spread
southeast across the waters west of Baja California by early 
next week. The NW swell will continue propagating SE, building
seas to 8 ft or greater as far south as the offshore waters of 
Michoacan and Guerrero by the middle of next week.

The pressure gradient between high pressure west of Baja 
California and developing low pressure over the SW United States
will tighten in the middle of next week. This will strengthen
winds over the Gulf of California, with seas building to near 8 
ft. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh offshore winds will prevail across the Gulf of
Papagayo region through early today with peak seas of 5-6 ft. 
Light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere during the next 
several days. Moderate SW swell of 5-7 ft will continue across 
the equatorial and Central American offshore waters for the next 
several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1025 mb is centered near 34N136W. The pressure 
gradient between this high and lower pressure in the vicinity of 
the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong NE to E trades north of 
the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 135W. Seas in this area are in 
the 7-9 ft range. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere north of
the ITCZ to near 22N and west of 120W. 

NW swell will propagate into the NW waters today. This swell 
will spread southeastward across the discussion waters through 
early next week. Seas of 8 ft or greater will cover much of the 
waters N of 05N and W of 110W by early Tue.

On a side note, the models show quite strong, perhaps gale force,
winds over central Mexico tonight through Sun afternoon. These 
winds appear to be related to a strong mid-level trough and high 
terrain in that region. 

$$
AL