000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130227
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Feb 12 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0240 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 09N84W to 05N102W. The ITCZ 
continues from 05N102W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 118W and 125W, and
from 06N to 18N between 135W and 140W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A tightening pressure gradient between high pressure west of 
Baja California and and developing low pressure over the 
southwestern United States will result in fresh to strong NW 
winds north of Punta Eugenia beginning tonight. These winds will 
continue through the weekend before diminishing Sun night. Gale
force winds north of the area will generate large seas which will
propagate into the waters off Baja California Norte this weekend,
building seas to 12-15 ft by early Sun. A set of NW swell will 
reach the waters west of Baja California Norte Sun, which will 
merge with the existing large seas. This swell will spread
southeast across the waters west of Baja California by early 
next week. The NW swell will continue propagating SE, building
seas to 8 ft or greater as far south as the offshore waters of 
Michoacan and Guerrero by the middle of next week.

The pressure gradient between high pressure west of Baja 
California and developing low pressure over the SW United States
will tighten in the middle of next week. This will strengthen
winds over the Gulf of California, with seas building to near 8 
ft. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Weak high pressure over the W Caribbean will promote moderate to
fresh offshore winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region through 
early Sat. Peak seas of 5-6 ft are expected in the region through
early Sat. Light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere during 
the next several days. Moderate SW swell of 5-7 ft will continue 
across the equatorial and Central American offshore waters for 
the next several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1025 mb is centered near 34N136W. The pressure 
gradient between this high and lower pressure in the vicinity of 
the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong NE to E trades north of 
the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 130W. Seas in this area are in 
the 7-9 ft range. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere north of
the ITCZ to near 22N and west of 120W. High pressure will weaken
slightly over N waters diminishing the trades slightly from Sun 
through the middle of next week.

NW swell will propagate into the NW waters Sat. This swell will 
spread southeastward across the discussion waters through early 
next week. Seas of 8 ft or greater will cover much of the waters 
N of 05N and W of 110W by early Tue.

On a side note, the models show quite strong, perhaps gale force,
winds over central Mexico Sat night through Sun afternoon. These
winds appear to be related to a strong mid-level trough and high
terrain in that region. 

$$
AL