000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122133 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Feb 12 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N83W to 04N107W. The ITCZ continues from 04N107W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 120W and 127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure building behind a weak cold front west of Baja California and developing low pressure over W United States will result in fresh to strong NW winds north of Punta Eugenia by tonight. These winds will continue through the weekend before diminishing Sun night. The accompanying seas will reach 12-15 ft Sat night through Mon morning. The subsequent NW swell will reach the waters west of Baja California Norte Sat with peak seas near 12 ft on Mon. This swell will spread across the waters west of Baja California by early next week. Combined NW and SW swell will increase seas to 8-10 ft as far south as the offshore waters of Michoacan and Guerrero. Developing low pressure over SW United States could lead to strong to near gale NW winds over the Gulf of California on Wed. Seas may reach 8-10 ft, which are quite large for the Gulf of California. No significant Gulf of Tehuantepec N gap wind event is expected over the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Weak high pressure over the W Caribbean will promote moderate to fresh offshore winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region through early Sat. Peak seas of 5-6 ft are expected in the region through early Sat. Light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere during the next several days. Moderate SW swell of 5-7 ft will continue across the equatorial and Central American offshore waters for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1028 mb is centered near 31N137W. The pressure gradient between this high and lower pressure near the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong NE to E trades north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 130W. Seas in this area are in the 7-9 ft range. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere north of the ITCZ to near 22N and west of 120W. High pressure will weaken slightly over N waters diminishing the trades slightly from Sun through the middle of next week. A set of NW swell event will propagate into the NW waters Sat. This swell will spread southeastward across the discussion waters through early next week. Seas of 8 ft or greater will cover much of the waters N of 05N and W of 110W by early Tue. On a side note, the models show quite strong, perhaps gale force, winds over central Mexico Sat night through Sun afternoon. These winds appear to be related to a strong mid-level trough and high terrain in that region. $$ Landsea