000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121604 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Feb 12 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N81W to 04N104W. The ITCZ continues from 04N104W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 120W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure west of Baja California and developing low pressure over W United States will result in fresh to strong NW winds north of Punta Eugenia by Fri night. These winds will continue through the weekend before diminishing Sun night. The accompanying seas will reach 12-15 ft Sat night through Mon morning. The subsequent NW swell will spread across the waters west of Baja California by early next week with peak values near 12 ft on Mon. Combined NW and SW swell will increase seas to 8-10 ft as far south as the offshore waters of Michoacan and Guerrero. No significant Gulf of Tehuantepec N gap wind event is expected over the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Weak high pressure over the W Caribbean will promote moderate to fresh offshore winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region through early Sat. Peak seas of 5-6 ft are expected in the region through early Sat. Light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere during the next several days. Moderate SW swell of 5-7 ft will continue across the equatorial and Central American offshore waters for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1025 mb is centered near 29N131W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong trades north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 130W. Seas in this area are in the 7-9 ft range. Moderate to fresh NE to E trades are elsewhere north of the ITCZ to near 22N and west of 120W. High pressure will weaken slightly over N waters diminishing the trades slightly from Sun through early next week. A set of NW swell event will propagate into the NW waters Sat. This swell will spread southeastward across the discussion waters through early next week. Seas of 8 ft or greater will cover much of the waters N of 05N and W of 110W by early Tue. On a side note, the models show quite strong, perhaps gale force, winds over central Mexico Sat night through Sun afternoon. These winds appear to be related to a strong mid-level trough and high terrain in that region. $$ Landsea