000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120846 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Feb 12 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0840 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N78W to 04N94W to 04N105W. The ITCZ continues from 04N105W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 20N between 129W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between high pressure centered near 29N129W and a surface trough over Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh northwesterly winds across the offshore waters west of Baja California Norte, and gentle to moderate winds west of Baja California Sur. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5 to 6 ft range west of the Baja California peninsula and 3-5 ft elsewhere. The area of high pressure is forecast to strengthen slightly as it remains relatively stationary during the next few days. This high and developing low pressure over the western U.S. will produce fresh to strong winds off Baja California Norte by Fri night. These winds will continue through the weekend. The combination of stronger winds and northwesterly swell will result in a steady increase in seas, which are forecast to peak around 14 ft over the waters off Baja California Norte Sun. The NW swell will spread seas 8 ft or greater SE across the waters off the entire Baja California peninsula by early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to occasionally fresh winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo through early Sat. Light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere during the next several days. Seas are mainly 3-4 ft, except 4-5 ft downwind of Papagayo and Panama. SW swell will propagate into the waters between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador Saturday, gradually building seas through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1024 mb is centered near 29N129W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong trades north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 135W. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere north of the ITCZ to near 22N and west of 120W. Seas in this area are in the 7-9 ft range. High pressure will prevail over the northern waters maintaining this area of fresh to strong trades through early next week. A set of NW swell event will propagate into the NW waters early Sat. This swell will spread southeastward across the discussion waters through early next week. Seas of 8 ft or greater will cover much of the waters N of 05N and W of 110W by early Tue. On a side note, the models show quite strong, perhaps gale force, winds over central Mexico late this weekend and early next week. These winds appear to be related to a strong mid-level trough and high terrain in that region. $$ AL