000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120246 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Feb 11 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0240 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N78W to 09N103W. The ITCZ extends from 09N103W to 06N113W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 20N between 130W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A high pressure system centered west of the area is supporting moderate northerly winds across the entire offshore waters west of Baja California. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5 to 6 ft range west of the Baja California peninsula and 3-5 ft elsewhere. The high pressure system west of the area is forecast to strengthen slightly as it remains relatively stationary during the next few days. This high and developing low pressure over the western U.S. bring fresh to strong winds off Baja California Norte by Fri night. These winds will continue through the weekend. A combination of the stronger winds and northwesterly swell should cause a steady increase in seas, which are forecast to peak around 14 ft over the waters off Baja California Norte Sun. This swell will spread seas 8 ft or greater SE across the waters off the entire Baja California peninsula by early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo through early Sat and in the Gulf of Panama tonight. Light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere during the next several days. Seas are mainly 3-4 ft, except 5-6 ft downwind of Papagayo and Panama, but those should subside this weekend. A modest SW swell will propagate across the waters late this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure is centered over the northern waters near 29N129W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong trades north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 125W. Seas in this area are in the 7-9 ft range. High pressure will prevail over the northern waters maintaining this area of fresh to strong trades through early next week. NW swell, with seas in the 8-9 ft range prevail in the far NW waters. These seas will subside below 8 ft tonight. A more significant NW swell event is expected to move across the northwestern waters late this weekend and spread southeastward across the subtropical east Pacific early next week. On a side note, the models show quite strong, perhaps gale force, winds over central Mexico late this weekend and early next week. These winds appear to be related to a strong mid-level trough and high terrain in that region. $$ AL