000 AXPZ20 KNHC 112118 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Feb 11 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 02N100W. The ITCZ extends from 02N100W to 06N115W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 130W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A high pressure system centered west of the area continues to support gentle to moderate northwesterly to northerly flow across the entire offshore waters west of Mexico. Seas are generally in the 3 to 5 ft range across the region. The high pressure system west of the area is forecast to strengthen slightly as it remains relatively stationary during the next few days. This high and developing low pressure over the western U.S. should cause stronger northerly to northwesterly winds to begin by Friday night off the central and northern portions of the Baja California Peninsula, and continue through much of the weekend. A combination of the stronger winds and northwesterly swell should cause a steady increase in seas, which are forecast to peak around 14 ft across the northern zones late this weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo through early Sat and in the Gulf of Panama tonight. Light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere during the next several days. Seas are mainly 3-4 ft, except 5-6 ft downwind of Papagayo and Panama, but those should subside this weekend. A modest SW swell will propagate across the waters late this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... An area of high pressure centered over the northern waters near 29N130W will strengthen slightly as it remains relatively stationary during the next few days, which should cause the trade winds to increase a little across the deep tropics north of the ITCZ and south of 20N generally west of about 125W Fri and this weekend. Consequently, the wave heights are expected to increase slightly to the 8-10 ft range Friday through early next week. Although winds have decreased near a weakening front over the far northwestern waters, seas are still in the 8-9 ft range due to northwesterly swell. As the boundary fizzles out on Friday, seas should subside in that region. A more significant NW swell event is expected to move across the northwestern waters late this weekend and spread southeastward across the subtropical east Pacific early next week. On a side note, the models show quite strong, perhaps gale force, winds over central Mexico late this weekend and early next week. These winds appear to be related to a strong mid-level trough and high terrain in that region. $$ Cangialosi