000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111545 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Feb 11 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 03N98W. The ITCZ extends from 03N98W to 06N118W to 08N133W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 131W and 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1023 mb high pressure system centered west of the area near 30N129W supports gentle to moderate northwesterly winds across the entire offshore waters west of Mexico. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft across the region. High pressure is forecast to build west of Baja California during the next few days, which should cause a stronger wind flow to develop, with moderate to fresh NW to N winds expected north of about 20N Fri and this weekend. The strongest flow will generally be north of Punta Eugenia this weekend, when winds could become fresh to strong. Large NW swell will impact the waters west of Baja California Norte this weekend, with maximum seas peaking around 13-14 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo through Sat, and in the Gulf of Panama tonight. Light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere during the next several days. Seas are mainly 3-4 ft, except 5-6 ft downwind of Papagayo and Panama. A modest SW swell will propagate across the waters this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... An area of high pressure centered near 30N129W will strengthen slightly as it remains relatively stationary during the next few days, which should cause the trade winds to increase a little across the deep tropics north of the ITCZ and south of 20N generally west of about 130W Fri and this weekend. Consequently, the wave heights are expected to increase to the 8-10 ft range during that time period. Earlier scatterometer data showed a small area of fresh southerly winds in the far NW waters north of 28N west of 137W, with seas in the 8-9 ft range in this region, ahead of a weakening front. The front is forecast to gradually weaken and lift northward tomorrow. NW swell associated with the boundary will propagate across the NW waters today, building wave heights to around 7-9 ft before subsiding late tonight and Fri. Larger NW swell will reach the northwestern waters this weekend. $$ Cangialosi