000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110934
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Feb 11 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 02N97W. The ITCZ extends
from 02N97W to 02N101W to 06N114W to 06N125W to 08N133W to 
07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N 
between 131W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered west of the area near 31N128W supports 
gentle to moderate northwesterly winds across the entire offshore
waters west of Mexico. Seas are generally 3 to 4 ft.

High pressure will build slightly west of Baja California during
the next few days, supporting a stronger wind flow, with moderate 
to fresh NW to N winds expected north of 18N by later today,
becoming fresh to strong north of Punta Eugenia by Sat night. 
Large NW swell will impact the waters west of Baja California 
Norte starting Sat, with maximum seas peaking around 13-14 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo through Sat,
and in the Gulf of Panama tonight. Light to gentle winds are 
expected elsewhere during the next several days. Seas are mainly 
3-4 ft, except 5-6 ft downwind of Papagayo and Panama. A modest 
SW swell will propagate across the waters this weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure centered near 31N128W will remain nearly stationary
through tonight, with a ridge extending southeast from the high 
center to near 15N110W. Scatterometer data shows a small area of 
fresh southerly winds in the far NW waters north of 28N west of 
137W, with seas in the 8-9 ft range in this region, ahead of a 
slow-moving cold front.

The front will stall in the vicinity of 30N140W overnight, then
become a surface trough Thu night and Fri. NW swell associated 
with the front will propagate across the NW waters through Thu, 
building wave heights to around 7-9 ft, then subside through 
Fri. Larger NW swell will reach the northwestern waters this 
weekend.

Trade winds will increase somewhat north of the ITCZ through Fri
as the high pressure near 30N127W strengthens moderately, and as 
a trough begins to form over far western part of the area south 
of 16N. The trades will become fresh to strong from about 08N to
18N west of 125W, along with resultant wave heights of 8-10 ft, 
Fri and Fri night.

$$
Mundell