000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102056
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Feb 10 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 1009 mb low pressure over northern
Colombia near 10N75W to 05N79W to 06N85W to 03N99W. The ITCZ 
extends from 03N101W to 06N125W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 86W and 92W, and from
04N to 08N between 112W and 119W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure centered west of the area supports gentle to
moderate NW-N winds across the entire offshore waters west of 
Mexico, with gentle to moderate variable winds in the Gulf of
California. Seas are 3-5 ft per altimeter data, except 3 ft or
less in the Gulf of California.

High pressure will build across the Baja California offshore 
waters during the next few days, supporting slightly stronger 
wind flow, with moderate to fresh NW to N winds expected north of
18N by tonight, then becoming fresh to strong north of Punta 
Eugenia Sat night through Sun evening. Large NW swell may impact
the waters west of Baja California Norte Fri night through Mon
night, with seas peaking around 14 ft. Fresh to strong northerly
flow may develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong offshore gap winds are expected across the Gulf 
of Papagayo region through early Thu, then moderate to fresh 
thereafter. Fresh north winds across the Gulf of Panama will 
pulse through early Thu, then moderate thereafter. Light to 
gentle winds are expected elsewhere during the next several days.
Seas are mainly 3-5 ft, except up to 6 ft downwind of the Gulfs 
of Papagayo and Panama. A modest SW swell will propagate across
the waters by the end of the week through the weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Weak 1023 mb high pressure centered near 30N127W will remain 
nearly stationary through Thu night, with a ridge extending 
southeast from the high center to near 15N110W. Scatterometer 
data shows a small area of fresh to strong southerly winds in 
the far NW waters north of 28N west of 137W, with seas in the 
8-10 ft range in this region ahead of a slow-moving cold front.

The cold front will continue to approach 140W today while
weakening, then stall in the vicinity of 30N140W through Thu, 
becoming a surface trough Thu night and Fri. NW swell associated 
with the front will continue to propagate across the northwest
waters through Thu, building wave heights to around 7-10 ft, 
then subside through Fri. Larger NW swell will reach the 
northwestern waters this weekend.

Trade winds will increase somewhat north of the ITCZ tonight 
through Fri as the high pressure near 30N127W strengthens 
moderately, and as a trough begins to form over far western part
of the area south of 16N. The trades will increase to fresh to 
strong from about 08N to 18N west of 125W, along with resultant 
wave heights of 8-10 ft, Fri and Fri night.

$$
Lewitsky