000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101457
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Feb 10 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1445 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 1010 mb low pressure over northern
Colombia near 10N74W to 03N90W to 03N100W. The ITCZ extends from
03N100W to 07N124W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 00N to 05N between 85W and 92W, and from 04N to 08N
between 111W and 119W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure supports light to gentle winds across the 
entire offshore waters west of Mexico, and altimeter data 
indicates seas are generally 3-4 ft. Building high pressure 
across the Baja California offshore waters will support slightly 
stronger wind flow, with moderate to fresh NW to N winds expected
north of 18N the next few days, then becoming fresh to strong 
north of Punta Eugenia Sat night. Large NW swell may impact the 
waters west of Baja California Norte by Fri night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong offshore gap winds are expected across the Gulf 
of Papagayo region through early Thu. Fresh north winds across 
the Gulf of Panama will pulse through early Thu. Light to gentle 
winds are expected elsewhere during the next several days. Seas
are mainly 3-5 ft, except up to 6 ft downwind of the Gulfs of
Papagayo and Panama. A modest SW swell will propagate across the
waters by the end of the week through the weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Weak high pressure centered near 31N129W will remain nearly 
stationary through Thu night, with a ridge extending southeast 
from the high center to near 15N110W. Scatterometer data shows a
small area of fresh southerly winds in the far NW waters north 
of 28N west of 138W, with seas in the 8-10 ft range in this 
region ahead of a slow-moving cold front.

The cold front will continue to approach 140W today while
weakening, then stall in the vicinity of 30N140W through Thu, 
becoming a surface trough Thu night and Fri. NW swell associated 
with the front will move into northwest waters through Thu, 
building wave heights to around 7-10 ft, then subside through 
Fri. Larger NW swell will reach the northwestern waters this 
weekend.

Trade winds will increase somewhat north of the ITCZ tonight 
through Fri as the high pressure near 31N129W strengthens 
moderately, and as a trough begins to form over far western part
of the area south of 16N. The trades will increase to fresh to 
strong from about 08N to 18N west of 125W, along with resultant 
wave heights of 8-10 ft, Fri and Fri night.

$$
Lewitsky