000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100304 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Feb 10 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 03N89W to 03N100W. The ITCZ extends from 03N100W to 06N125W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 82W and 90W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recent scatterometer data shows light to gentle winds across most of the waters west of Mexico, and altimeter data indicates seas are generally 3-4 ft. Building high pressure across the Baja California offshore waters will support moderate to fresh NW to N winds north of 18N the next few days, becoming fresh to strong north of Punta Eugenia Sat night. Large NW swell may impact the waters west of Baja California Norte beginning Sat night. Gap winds are projected to become fresh in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recent scatterometer data shows light to gentle winds across most of the Pacific waters west of Central America and northern South America, sea heights estimated to be generally 3-4 ft. Fresh to occasionally strong offshore gap winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo region through early Thu. Fresh north winds across the Gulf of Panama will pulse at night and early mornings through Thu. Little change is expected elsewhere with light to gentle winds continuing for several more days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak high pressure centered near 29N130W will remain nearly stationary through Thu night, with a ridge extending southeast from the high center to near 18N110W. Recent scatterometer data shows a small area of moderate to fresh trade winds west of 130W, and altimeter data indicates seas are 6-7 ft in the region of fresh trade winds. A weakening slow-moving cold front will approach 140W on Wed, then stall west of the forecast area through Thu, becoming a surface trough Thu night and Fri. NW swell associated with the front will move into northwest waters Wed and Thu, increasing wave heights to about 7-10 ft, then subside through Fri. Large NW swell will reach the northwestern waters this weekend. Trade winds will increase north of the ITCZ Wed night through Fri as the high pressure near 29N130W strengthens moderately. A trough is forecast to form over far western part of the area south of 16N Thu night and Fri. A tight gradient between the trough and building high pressure over the north-central waters is expected to produce an area of fresh to strong winds from about 08N to 18N and west of 125W, along with resultant wave heights of 8-10 ft, Fri and Fri night. $$ Mundell