000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091536 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Feb 9 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1515 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 1010 mb low pressure over northern Colombia near 10N74W to 05N80W to 02N94W to 04N100W. The ITCZ extends from 04N100W to 06N125W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 77W and 88W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California and is producing gentle northerly winds. Wave heights are generally in the 3-5 ft range in NW-N swell. Gentle to moderate winds and wave heights of 3-5 ft are expected across the offshore waters through early Wed before high pressure begins to strengthen across the region and winds freshen Wed through Sat night N of 18N. Winds are light and variable in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region as the region remains in a weak pressure pattern. Wave heights are generally 2-4 ft in mixed long period SW and NW swells. Variable winds at 15 kt or less and seas of 2-4 ft are expected across the Tehuantepec region through the end of the week, building in SW swell this weekend. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are expected through the next several days. No significant swell events expected through Sat, with a large NW swell event potentially impacting the waters offshore of Baja California Norte beginning Sat night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong trade winds across the central and SW Caribbean will support fresh offshore gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo increasing to strong speeds at night and into the morning hours through Thu. Fresh northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama will continue during the overnight and early mornings through Thu, then diminishing to gentle to moderate speeds through Sat night. Seas will occasionally build to 5-7 ft in the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama during the strongest winds. A weak pressure pattern prevails across the Pacific region across the offshore waters of northern South America. Gentle to moderate winds and wave heights of 3-5 ft due to mainly long period S-SW swell prevail across this area. Little change is forecast through Thu night. By the end of the week into the weekend, a modest SW swell set will arrive gradually building seas to 4-7 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1019 mb is centered near 29N131W. A ridge extends from this high center southeastward to near 17N110W. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are generally noted north of the ITCZ to about 20N and west of 120W. Wave heights within this area are in the 5-8 ft range due to NW swell. These wave heights will subside through this evening. Otherwise, rather benign marine conditions are expected to continue across the rest of the discussion area through the forecast period. By Wed morning, winds will become fresh from the south over the far northwest waters ahead of a cold front that is expected to approach those waters. The front is expected to weaken as it moves slowly into the far northwest waters Wed through Thu. It will weaken further to a trough as it moves across the northeast waters from late Thu through Fri. New NW swell generated behind the front will move into northwest waters Wed morning through Thu producing wave heights of about 7-10 ft. The swell will decay from late Thu through Fri allowing for wave heights to subside to less than 8 ft over the northwest waters. A more expansive area and set of NW swell may arrive to the northern waters for the end of the upcoming weekend. A trough is forecast to form over far western part of the area south of 16N from late on Thu through Fri. The pinched off gradient between it and the stronger high pressure over the northern and central waters is expected to lead to an area of fresh to strong northeast winds from about 09N to 18N and west of about 127W along with resultant wave heights of 8-10 ft. $$ Lewitsky