000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090727 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Feb 9 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0715 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends southwestward from a 1009 mb low over northwestern Colombia to 06N77W to 02N89W to 04N100W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N120W to 04N130W and to beyond the area at 04N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 82W-84W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm north of the trough between 83W-85W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California and is producing gentle northerly winds as indicated in overnight ASCAT data. Wave heights are generally in the 4-6 ft range in north to northwest swell. Gentle to moderate winds and wave heights of 7 ft or less are expected across the offshore waters through early Wed before high pressure begin to strengthen across the region and winds freshen Wed through Thu night. Winds increase to fresh to strong speeds Fri and Fri night offshore northern Baja California as stronger high pressure builds east-southeastward across the offshore waters. Winds are light and variable in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region as high pressure that was over the western Gulf of Mexico has been by a weak pressure pattern. Variable winds at 15 kt or less and seas of 6 ft or less are expected across Tehuantepec through Thu. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are expected through the next few days, with no significant swell events expected. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure pattern prevails across the Pacific region south of Central America. Light to gentle winds and wave heights of 3-5 ft due to south to southwest swell prevail across this area. Strong trade winds across the central and SW Caribbean will support fresh offshore gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo increasing to strong speeds at night and into the morning hours through Thu. Fresh north winds over the Gulf of Panama will change little through early Thu, then diminish to gentle to moderate speeds through Sat. Light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere during the period, with no significant swell events expected. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1021 mb is centered near 28N134W. A ridge extends from this high center southeastward to near 18N112W. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are generally noted north of the ITCZ to about 18N and west of 120W. Wave heights within this area of winds are in the 6-8 ft range due to northwest swell. These wave heights will subside through this evening. Otherwise, rather benign marine conditions are expected to continue across the rest of the discussion area through the forecast period. By Wed morning, winds will become fresh from the south over the far northwest waters ahead of a cold front that is expected to approach those waters. The front is expected to weaken as it moves slowly into the far northwest waters Wed through Thu. It will weaken further to a trough as it moves across the northeast waters from late Thu through Fri. New northwest swell generated behind the front will move into northwest waters Wed afternoon through Thu producing wave heights of about 8-10 ft. The swell will decay from late Thu through Fri allowing for wave heights to lower less than 8 ft over the northwest waters. A trough is forecast to form over far western part of the area south of 16N from late on Thu through Fri. The pinched off gradient between it and the stronger high pressure over the northern and central waters is expected to lead to an area of fresh to strong northeast winds from about 09N to 18N and west of about 127W along with resultant wave heights of 8-10 ft. $$ Aguirre