000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090349
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Feb 09 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends southwestward from a 1009 mb low over 
northwestern Colombia to 06N77W to 02N89W to 04N100W, where
latest scatterometer and model data indicates that it transitions
to the ITCZ to 04N120W to 04N130W and to beyond the area at
04N140W. Scattered moderate within 240 nm southeast of trough 
between 82W-85W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California and is producing gentle northerly winds as indicated
in the latest ASCAT data. Wave heights are generally in the 4-6 
ft range in north to northwest swell. Gentle to moderate winds 
and wave heights of 7 ft or less are expected across the 
offshore waters through early Wed before high pressure begin to 
strengthen across the region and winds freshen Wed through Thu 
night. Winds increase to fresh to strong speeds Fri and Fri 
night offshore northern Baja California as stronger high 
pressure builds east-southeastward across the offshore waters. 
Winds are light and variable in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region 
as high pressure that was over the western Gulf of Mexico has 
been by a weak pressure pattern. Variable winds at 15 kt or less 
and seas of 6 ft or less are expected across Tehuantepec through 
Thu. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are expected through 
the next few days, with no significant swell events expected.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure pattern prevails across the Pacific region south
of Central America. Light to gentle winds and wave heights of 
3-5 ft due to south to southwest swell prevail across this area.
Strong trade winds across the central and SW Caribbean will 
support fresh offshore gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo 
increasing to strong speeds at night and into the morning hours 
through Thu. Fresh north winds over the Gulf of Panama will 
change little well throughout the week. Light to gentle winds 
are expected elsewhere during the period, with no significant 
swell events expected.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1021 mb is centered near 28N134W. A ridge 
extends from this high center southeastward to near 18N112W. 
Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are generally noted north 
of the ITCZ to about 18N and west of 120W. Wave heights within 
this area of winds are in the 6-9 ft range due to northwest 
swell. These wave heights will subside through Tue evening as 
the area of seas 8 ft and greater migrates to west of 140W. 
Otherwise, rather benign marine conditions are expected to 
continue across the rest of the discussion area through the 
forecast period. By Wed morning, winds will become fresh from 
the south over the far northwest waters ahead of a cold front 
that is expected to approach those waters. The front is expected 
to weaken as it moves slowly into the far northwest waters Wed 
through Thu. New northwest swell generated behind the front will 
move into the area waters Wed afternoon and build across the NW 
waters through Thu producing wave heights of about 8-10 ft.

$$
Aguirre