000 AXPZ20 KNHC 082131 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Feb 8 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 04N102W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 04N E of 85W to coast of Colombia. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California and is producing gentle northerly winds as depicted in recent ASCAT data. Seas are generally in the 4-6 ft range in N to NW swell. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 7 ft or less are expected across the offshore waters through early Wed before high pressure begin to strengthen across the region and winds freshen Wed and Thu. Fresh gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region have diminished today and become light and variable as high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico has shifted eastward. Variable winds at 15 kt or less and seas of 6 ft or less are expected across Tehuantepec through Thu. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are expected through the next few days, with no significant swell events anticipated. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure pattern prevails across the Pacific region south of Central America. Light to gentle winds and wave heights of 3-5 ft due to south to southwest swell prevail across this area. Strong trade winds across the central and SW Caribbean will support fresh offshore gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo increasing to strong at night and into to morning hours through Thu. Fresh north winds over the Gulf of Panama will change little well throughout the week. Light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere during the period, with no significant swell events expected. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1021 mb is centered near 28N135W and extends a ridge southeastward to near 18N112W. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are generally noted north of the ITCZ to about 18N and west of 120W. Wave heights within this area of winds are in the 6-9 ft range due to northwest swell. These wave heights will subside through Tue as the area of seas 8 ft and greater migrates to west of 140W. Otherwise, rather benign marine conditions are expected to continue across the rest of the discussion area through the forecast period. By Wed morning, winds will become fresh from the south over the far northwest waters ahead of a cold front that is expected to approach those waters. The front is expected to weaken as it moves slowly into the far northwest waters Wed through Thu. New northwest swell generated behind the front will move into the area waters Wed afternoon and build across the NW waters through Thu. $$ Stripling