000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070927
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Feb 7 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 05N82W to 04N95W, where latest
scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ
to 05N110W to 04N120W to 04N130W and to beyond 05N140W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm north of
the ITCZ between 135W-136W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the forecast waters west of Baja
California. Overnight ASCAT data showed gentle to moderate 
northerly winds west of Mexico, and altimeter data passes 
indicate seas generally in the 4-6 ft range. Fresh to strong gap 
winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by early Sun 
through early Mon as high pressure builds southeastward across 
the Gulf of Mexico in the wake of a cold front, while gentle to 
moderate winds are expected elsewhere through late in the 
upcoming week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure pattern prevails across the Pacific region south
of Central America. Latest scatterometer data continues to 
depict light to gentle winds in this area. Seas are generally 3-5
ft due to mixed southwest and northwest swell. High pressure over
the northwest Caribbean Sea will maintain fresh to occasionally 
strong offshore winds across the Gulf of Papagayo tonight 
through early Tue, then mainly fresh winds through Thu night. 
Fresh north winds through the Gulf of Panama will begin tonight
and continue through early on Wed, then diminish to moderate 
speeds through Thu night. Light to gentle winds are expected 
elsewhere during the period. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Northwest swell is resulting in wave heights of 6-8 ft over the 
northern waters north of 28N between 121W-127W. This swell will 
decay through this afternoon allowing for these wave heights to 
lower to less than 8 ft.

High pressure well to the north of the forecast area extends a 
ridge southeastward deep into the tropics south of 20N and west 
of Mexico. The high will retreat northward and weaken through
tonight. This will cause for the pressure gradient north of the 
ITCZ to weaken, however, a tight pressure gradient between the 
ridging and a frontal system well to the west of the area will 
sustain fresh east winds from about 04N to 15N and west of 129W 
through late on Mon. Wave heights within this area of winds are 
in the 8-10 ft range. These wave heights will slowly subside 
through the early part of the week as they shift west of 140W. 
Otherwise, rather benign marine conditions are expected to 
continue across the rest of the discussion area through the 
forecast period.

$$
Aguirre