000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052040
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Feb 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N86W to 03N99W. The ITCZ extends
from 03N99W to 04N140W. Scattered showers are noted within 200 
nm of the boundaries between 86W and 107W.  

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the waters west of Baja 
California. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate 
northerly winds west of Mexico, and altimeter passes indicate 
seas generally in the 5-7 ft range. Fresh NW winds are expected 
across the central Gulf of California through this evening. 
Fresh to strong gap winds are possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
Sun through early Mon. Gentle to moderate winds are expected 
elsewhere through early next week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure pattern prevails across the Pacific region south
of Central America. Scatterometer data continues to depict light
to gentle winds in this area. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft, 
except offshore the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama, where recent 
strong gap winds have increased sea heights to 7 ft downwind from
their source region. High pressure across the NW Caribbean will 
maintain fresh to occasionally strong offshore winds across the 
Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama Sun night through early Tue. Light 
to gentle winds are expected elsewhere through Tue. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface low is centered NW of the area. NE to E swell 
generated by the low is producing 7 to 9 ft seas in the area 
north of 24N and west of 137W. The low is expected to continue 
moving away from our area while weakening, with winds and seas 
diminishing also.

High pressure well to the north of the forecast area extends a
ridge southeastward deep into the tropics south of 20N west of
Mexico. The high will retreat northward and weaken through the
weekend, which will relax the pressure gradient north of the 
ITCZ. An active weather pattern west of 140W in the Central 
Pacific will maintain elevated seas, particularly west of 130W, 
the next couple of days, but marine conditions are expected to 
moderate west of 125W by Sun. Benign marine conditions are 
expected to persist across rest of the discussion area through
the forecast period.

$$
ERA