000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051544
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Feb 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 09N86W to 02N98W. The ITCZ extends
from 02N98W to 05N140W. Scattered showers are noted within 200 nm
N of the boundaries between 85W and 115W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the waters west of Baja 
California. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate 
northerly winds west of Mexico, and altimeter passes indicate 
seas generally in the 5-7 ft range. Fresh to strong NW winds are
expected across the central Gulf of California today. Fresh to 
strong gap winds are possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun 
through early Mon. Gentle to moderate winds are expected 
elsewhere through early next week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure pattern prevails across the Pacific region south
of Central America. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle 
winds in this area. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft, except offshore
the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama, where recent strong gap winds 
have increased sea heights to 7 ft downwind from their source 
region. High pressure across the NW Caribbean will maintain fresh
to occasionally strong offshore winds across the Gulfs of 
Papagayo and Panama Sun night through early Tue. Light to gentle
winds are expected elsewhere through Tue. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface low is centered near 31N140W. Fresh winds associated 
with the low are occurring within 200 nm north of the low. NE to
E swell generated by the low is producing 8 to 10 ft seas in the
area north of 25N and west of 134W. The low is expected to move 
northwest and weaken today, with winds and seas diminishing 
across this area. 

High pressure well to the north of the forecast area extends a
ridge southeastward deep into the tropics south of 20N west of
Mexico. The high will retreat northward and weaken through the
weekend, which will relax the pressure gradient north of the 
ITCZ. An active weather pattern west of 140W in the Central 
Pacific will maintain elevated seas, particularly west of 130W, 
the next couple of days, but marine conditions are expected to 
moderate west of 125W by Sun. Benign marine conditions are 
expected to persist across rest of the discussion area through
the forecast period.

$$
ERA