000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050900
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Feb 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 01N98W to 02N103W. The 
ITCZ axis extends from 02N103W to 04N113W to 03N118W to 05N140W.
No significant convection is noted at this time.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A high pressure ridge prevails across the waters west of Baja 
California. Scatterometer data shows mainly gentle to moderate
northerly winds west of Mexico, and altimeter passes indicate
seas are generally 5 to 7 ft. Fresh to strong NW winds are 
expected across the central Gulf of California today. Fresh to 
strong gap winds are possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun 
through early Mon. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are expected 
elsewhere through Tue. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure pattern prevails across the Pacific region south
of Central America, and scatterometer data shows winds are light
to gentle in this area. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft, except 
offshore the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama, where recent strong 
gap winds have increased sea heights to 7 ft downwind from their
source region. High pressure across the NW Caribbean will maintain
fresh to occasionally strong offshore winds across the Gulfs of 
Papagayo and Panama Sun night through early Tue. Mainly light to
gentle winds are expected elsewhere through Tue. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface low is centered near 31N139W. Fresh to strong winds 
associated with the low are occurring within 240 nm north of the 
low center. NE to E swell generated by the low is producing 7 to 
11 ft seas in the area north of 25N and west of 134W. The low is
expected to move northwest and weaken today, with winds and seas
diminishing across this area. 

High pressure well to the north of the forecast area extends a
ridge southeastward deep into the tropics south of 20N west of
Mexico. The high will retreat northward and weaken through Sun,
which will relax the pressure gradient north of the ITCZ this
weekend. An active weather pattern west of 140W in the Central
Pacific will maintain elevated seas, particularly west of 130W, 
the next couple of days, but marine conditions are expected to 
moderate west of 125W by Sun. Generally begin marine conditions 
are expected to persist across rest of the discussion area east 
of 125W through Tue.

$$
Mundell