000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050320
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Feb 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 03N103W. The ITCZ axis
extends from 03N103W to 02N113W to 04N119W to 05N140W. no 
significant convection is noted at this time.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A high pressure ridge prevails across the waters west of Baja 
California. Scatterometer data shows mainly gentle to moderate
northerly winds west of Mexico, and altimeter passes indicate
seas are generally 5 to 7 ft. NW winds will become fresh to 
strong across the central Gulf of California on Fri. Mainly 
gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere through Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure pattern prevails across the Pacific region south
of Central America, and scatterometer data shows winds are light
to gentle in this area. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft, except 
offshore the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama, where recent strong 
gap winds have increased sea heights to 7-8 ft downwind from 
their source region. High pressure over the NW Caribbean will 
maintain fresh to strong offshore winds across the Gulfs of 
Papagayo and Panama through Fri morning. Mainly light to gentle 
winds are expected elsewhere through Tue.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1017 mb surface low is centered near 30N136W. Strong winds
associated with the low are occurring within 240 nm north of
the low center. NE to E swell generated by the low is producing 
7 to 12 ft seas in the area north of 25N and west of 130W. The 
low is expected to move northwest and weaken through Fri, with 
winds and seas diminishing across this area. 

High pressure well to the north of the forecast area extends a
ridge southeastward deep into the tropics south of 20N west of
Mexico. The high will retreat northward and weaken through Sun,
which will relax the pressure gradient north of the ITCZ this
weekend. An active weather pattern west of 140W in the Central
Pacific will maintain elevated seas, particularly west of 130W, 
the next couple of days, but marine conditions are expected to 
moderate west of 125W by Sun. Generally begin marine conditions 
are expected to persist across the discussion area east of 125W 
through Tue.

$$
Mundell