000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042111
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Feb 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N84W to 04N94W. A 1030 mb 
surface low is analyzed near 02N100W. The ITCZ continues from 
01N105W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 
08N between 83W and 112W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridge prevails across the waters west of Baja 
California. Moderate northerly winds prevail across the waters 
of Baja California north of Punta Eugenia, where seas are 5-7 
ft. Gentle to moderate N winds prevail elsewhere across the 
offshore waters as well as inside the Gulf of California. Winds 
are expected to freshen from north to south across the offshore 
waters through Fri as high pressure builds into the region from 
the NW. Winds will increase to strong across the Gulf of 
California early Fri through Sat, when seas will build to 4-6 
ft. NW swell over the offshore waters of Baja California Norte 
will maintain seas 5 to 7 ft for the next few days. 

Gentle to moderate NW to W winds prevail elsewhere across the
offshore waters of Mexico south of Cabo San Lucas. Fresh offshore
gap winds will prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec north of 15N.
Seas across the Tehuantepec area are in the 4-6 ft range.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE winds will prevail across
the Papagayo area through the next 24 hours. Seas will range
between 6 to 9 ft during this time.

Gulf of Panama: Fresh to strong N winds are expected through
tonight across the area, with seas persisting in the 4-8 ft 
range north of 02N.

Elsewhere winds are light across the Central American and 
equatorial waters. Large NW swell over the Guatemala/El Salvador 
waters from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will 
gradually subside tonight.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1017 mb surface low is centered near 29N134W. Strong to near gale
force winds are occurring within 240 nm across the north 
semicircle of the low. Seas across this area are 10-14 ft in NW 
swell. The low is expected to continue moving west while
dissipating within the next 24 hours.

A weak high pressure ridge extends west of Baja
California Norte, and to the north of low described above. 
The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure in 
the vicinity of the ITCZ is producing moderate to fresh NE to E 
trades north of the ITCZ to 17N and west of 115W. High pressure 
will build across the area as low moves west and dissipates 
through Fri. The resultant pressure gradient to the south will 
freshen the tradewinds south of 20N and west of 120W. NE swell 
from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue to 
propagate west of 110W south of 12N through this evening. 

$$
ERA