000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041546 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Feb 4 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1018 mb surface low is centered near 29N133W. Strong to gale force winds are occurring within 360 nm across the north semicircle of this low, with recent ASCAT data showing the gales dipping just south of 30N and into the discussion area to 29.5N, both northeast and northwest of the surface low. Seas across this area are are 10-14 ft in NW swell. The low center will shift westward and exit the area within 48 hours, with gale force winds expected to lift north of 30N and out of the area later this morning. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N87W to 04N93W. The ITCZ continues from 04N93W to beyond 01.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S OF 07N between 90W and 114W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure ridge prevails across the waters west of Baja California. Moderate northerly winds prevail across the waters of Baja California north of Punta Eugenia, where seas are 5-7 ft. Gentle to moderate N winds prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters as well as inside the Gulf of California. Winds are expected to freshen from north to south across the offshore waters through Fri as high pressure builds into the region from the NW. Winds will increase to strong across the entire Gulf of California early Fri through early Sat, when seas will build to 4-7 ft. NW swell over the offshore waters of Baja California Norte will maintain seas 5 to 7 ft for the next few days. Gentle to moderate NW to W winds prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters of Mexico south of Cabo San Lucas. Fresh offshore gap winds will prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec north of 15N. Seas across the Tehuantepec area are in the 5-7 ft range. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: High pressure across the NW Caribbean has weakened sufficiently across Central America to produce diminishing winds across Papagayo, where gap winds are currently 20-25 kt and extend offshore to 88W as depicted by recent ASCAT data. Winds will further diminish through the next 24 hours. Gulf of Panama: High pressure across the NW Caribbean will support fresh to strong N winds through Thu evening, with seas persisting in the 5-8 ft range north of 02N. Elsewhere winds are light across the Central American and equatorial waters. Large NW swell over the Guatemala/El Salvador waters from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will gradually subside tonight. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak high pressure ridge extends west of Baja California Norte, and to the north of 1018 mb low pressure centered near 29N133W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is producing moderate to fresh NE to E trades north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 118W. The surface low will shift westward during the next few days and exit the area. This will allow high pressure to build SSE into the area waters east of 130W through Fri night. The resultant pressure gradient to the south will freshen the tradewinds south of 20N and west of 120W. NE swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue to propagate west of 110W south of 12N through today. $$ ERA