000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040945 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Feb 4 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0850 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Deep layered low pressure across the far NW waters has produced a surface low in the past 24 hours, currently 1017 mb near 28.5N132.5W. Strong to gale force winds are occurring within 360 nm across the north semicircle of this low, with recent ASCAT data showing the gales dipping just south of 30N and into the discussion area to 29.5N, both northeast and northwest of the surface low. Seas across this area are are 9-14 ft in NW swell. The low center will shift westward and exit the area within 48 hours, with gale force winds expected to lift north of 30N and out of the area this morning. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 01N95W to 04N130W to beyond 01.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 115W and 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure ridge prevails across the waters west of Baja California tonight. Moderate northerly winds prevail across the waters of Baja California north of Punta Eugenia, where seas are 6-8 ft. Gentle to moderate N winds prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters as well as inside the Gulf of California. Winds are expected to freshen from north to south across the offshore waters tonight through Fri as high pressure builds into the region from the NW. Winds will increase to strong across the entire Gulf of California early Fri through early Sat, when seas will build to 4-7 ft. NW swell over the offshore waters of Baja California Norte will maintain seas 6 to near 8 ft for the next few days. Gentle to moderate NW to W winds prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters of Mexico south of Cabo San Lucas. Strong offshore gap winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec north of 15N and will continue to diminish over this area, falling to 20 kt or less by Thu morning. Seas across the Tehuantepec area are currently in the 5-7 ft range, but are 8 ft well offshore in a mix of NE wind swell from Tehuantepec and NW swell impacting the regional waters. Seas across this area will subside below 8 ft by Thu morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: High pressure across the NW Caribbean has weakened sufficiently across Central America to produce diminishing winds across Papagayo, where gap winds are currently 20-25 kt and extend offshore to 88W as depicted by recent ASCAT data. Winds will further diminish tonight through Thu, with winds pulsing to fresh to strong across the Papagayo region Thu night. Gulf of Panama: High pressure across the NW Caribbean will support fresh to strong N winds through Thu evening, with seas persisting in the 5-8 ft range north of 02N. Elsewhere winds are light across the Central American and equatorial waters. Large NW swell over the Guatemala/El Salvador waters from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will gradually subside tonight. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak high pressure ridge extends west of Baja California Norte, and to the north of 1017 mb low pressure centered near 28.5N132.5W. The pressure gradient between these ridges and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is producing moderate to fresh NE to E trades north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 118W. A trough is supporting stronger trades from 05N to 15N between 115W and 120W. The surface low will shift westward during the next few days and exit the area. This will allow high pressure to build SSE into the area waters east of 130W late Thu through Fri night. The resultant pressure gradient to the south will freshen the tradewinds south of 20N and west of 120W. Large NE swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue to propagate west of 110W south of 12N through early Thu. $$ Stripling